NFL Picks Week #12 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


ALERT!!! We haven't had a single 5-star play thus far in 2018. In a strange turn of events, I've got two picks this week and both are rated 5 stars!!! If you have been hesitating for a while to jump on board, this is the time to do it.

Written Wednesday November 21st, 2018 (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Baltimore Ravens -10.5 vs Oakland Raiders (rated 5 stars)

This is going to be the fourth straight week where the Ravens don’t need to travel, while the Raiders will be on the road for the third time over the past four weeks. I also like the fact that Oakland will be traveling three time zones and playing at 1 PM Eastern Time (which is the equivalent of 10 AM in Oakland). The Raiders could be looking ahead to more exciting games against the Chiefs and Steelers in their next couple of games. I don’t believe the Ravens will underestimate them considering Oakland was finally able to pull off a late-second win in Arizona last week.


PICK #2: Buffalo Bills +3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (rated 5 stars)

The Bills will have much more fresher legs than the Jags considering Buffalo is off their bye week, while Jacksonville played through a tough and physical game against Pittsburgh. Revenge is certainly in Buffalo’s mind after losing 10-3 in the playoffs against those same Jaguars. This is a sandwich game for Jacksonville who just played Indy and Pittsburgh, and are going to face Indy and Tennessee (two divisional opponents) over the next two weeks. Josh Allen will be back from an injury for the Bills; spending a few weeks on the sidelines probably gave him more time to study the game from a different perspective. A defensive battle is expected, so give me the Bills and the 3.5 points please.


System on Totals

My gosh, this system has been completely collapsing after a hot start! We started 8-2 and have gone 1-8 since, which is shocking! The overall record just fell below .500 at 9-10 (47.4%). This is really a head-scratcher.

There are a couple of plays that meet the criteria for betting this weekover 47.5 Packers-Vikings and over 47 Seahawks-Panthers.


I've got two free unofficial picks for you this week:

  • Atlanta Falcons +13 at New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 8-2 against the spread this year, so you can't really feel super confident anytime you are laying them. Coming off two very easy wins (48-7 against the Eagles and 51-14 at Cincinnati), I could see them letting down a little bit. Divisional games seem to tend to be tighter in general, and the Falcons did push the Saints into overtime earlier this year. They are coming off a disappointing home loss to Dallas and will be looking to rebound
  • Cleveland Browns +3 at Cincinnati Bengals. Not only are the Browns coming off their bye week, but they haven't been on the road for three straight weeks.


Good luck, fellows!

Professor MJ