NFL Picks Week #11 (2022 regular season)
NFL PICKS (WEEK #11)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written Wednesday November 16th, 2022 at 2 pm Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
It’s time for my Week 11 NFL picks!
In case you don’t know me yet, my name is Professor MJ and I have been teaching statistics to university students in Canada for the past 15 years. I retired two months ago after becoming financially independent and I am now free to do whatever I want without working, which has been such a blessing.
This week I’ve got 3 official picks for you, and as usual I will share my thoughts on all of the other games on the menu, just for fun.
Let’s rock and roll!
PICK #1: CHICAGO BEARS +3 AT ATLANTA FALCONS
Justin Fields has accomplished something really incredible over the past two weeks. He has put together 2 of the top-8 single-game QB rushing totals in NFL history with 178 and 147 yards on the ground in Week 9 and 10. That’s truly remarkable!
To me, it was clear all along that I would bet Chicago. They have scored at least 29 points in each of their past four games. And notice how they didn’t only face bad defensive units: the Patriots, the Cowboys, the Dolphins and the Lions. Now, they are established as 3-point underdogs. I understand their defense is bad, but if they score more than 29 points again, which is very likely given they are facing a soft Falcons D, then chances are good they will cover the spread.
I also see Atlanta as a team who is turning the corner from being a competitive team to being in a downfall. They have lost three of their past four matchups, their only victory being in overtime at home against the lowly Panthers.
Here are some encouraging trends if you are planning to bet Da Bears:
- Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Atlanta;
- Chicago is 4-1 ATS on the road against teams with a losing record;
- Atlanta holds a 3-7 record ATS in their past 10 games at home;
- Atlanta is 0-4-1- ATS following an ATS loss.
Justin Fields is a Georgia native, so he will be extra motivated to do well in front of friends and family. His offense ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since Week 7, according to the EPA metric (“Expected Points Added”).
I really like the Bears with the 3 points on the road in Atlanta this Sunday!
PICK #2: BALTIMORE RAVENS -11 VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
Statistical studies have shown that bye weeks are more beneficial to strong NFL teams, who tend to make better use of this extra time to gameplan. That’s good news when considering to put a wager on the Ravens this weekend.
Reports indicate that Baker Mayfield will get the nod for the Panthers. The Ravens defense knows him well from his time with Cleveland, and they will take it to him. Speaking of Baltimore’s defense, they have been improving their quality of play lately. Overall this season they rank 26th based on their EPA, but since Week 7 they are in 16th place.
Carolina has posted a 1-5 record ATS following a straight up win, and they are 1-7 ATS over their past eight road games.
Meanwhile, the Ravens know how to take care of business at home against teams with a losing record. As a matter of fact, they hold a 7-2 ATS record in such conditions.
Baltimore is simply the stronger and better rested team, so I see them running past the Panthers easily this weekend.
PICK #3: NEW YORK GIANTS -3 VS DETROIT LIONS
The Lions are an exciting team to watch because they have been involved in many shootouts, but the bottom line is they simply cannot stop the run, which does not bode well when facing Saquon Barkley. In order to try to keep up with New York, Jared Goff will be forced to throw too much on the road outdoors, and having to deal with the wind of MetLife stadium. I see Detroit turning the ball over many times, while New York keeps protecting the ball well, as they have done all season (they have had the third-lowest number of giveaways in the league in 2022).
The Lions are pretty much out of playoff contention with a 3-6 record, while the Giants are in the thick of the playoff race with a 7-2 record. How often have you seen a 7-2 team at home being only a 3-point favorite against a 3-6 team? And it’s not like the Giants had many key injuries explaining this weird line; they are mostly healthy.
Detroit is coming off an emotional victory over their NFC North rivals from Chicago. They could experience a letdown here. Give me the Giants laying 3 points.
Up next, let me share unofficial picks on the remaining games for Week 11:
- Aaron Rodgers has a 10-1 record at home when the temperature is below 35 degrees Fahrenheit. Such cold weather is expected Thursday night, but if forced to bet I would still tend to go with Tennessee +3 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is coming off an emotional win over their former coach Mike McCarthy. The weak point of Green Bay’s defense is against the run; that’s awful news when you are about to face Derrick Henry.
- Elite teams tend to do well following a straight up loss, which explains why I am leaning towards the Buffalo Bills -8 against the Browns. Buffalo will also be at home for the fourth week over the past five. Cleveland can run the ball well, but Brissett will need to make some throws if they want to keep up with Buffalo’s offense. I don’t think he will be successful, and that will doom the Browns. That being said, the Browns still have some talented players like Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper and Myles Garrett, which is why this is not an official pick but only a lean.
- I like the Colts +6.5 at home against the Eagles. Philly has not been as dominant in the past two weeks, while the Colts players are pumped about playing for their new head coach, Jeff Saturday. The Eagles D has issues defending the run, which will allow Jonathan Taylor to make some big runs and keep the Colts in the game. Dallas Goedert is out, which removes one of their top weapons on offense. Philly is losing one day of preparation after playing last Monday. The last 14 times they played after a Monday game, they held a 4-10 ATS record.
- I’ll go with the Patriots -3 against the Jets. Bill Belichick owns a 53-5 record at home against QBs in Year 1 or 2. The Jets are too one-dimensional for my taste, and New England’s defense is superior. New York is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Gillette Stadium.
- Let me take the Saints -4 against the Rams. Cooper Kupp is out. He was the lone bright spot in this putrid offense this season. The offensive line is in shambles. Matthew Stafford is not certain to play. Too many uncertainties for me. New Orleans’ offense has also performed very badly, and they are considering making a QB change in favor of Jameis Winston. I believe they should do it in order to try to create a spark.
- My next lean goes to the Commanders laying 3 points in Houston. Washington is 3-1 with Taylor Heinicke under center, and their defense has been playing solid football. Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson will take full advantage of facing the league’s worst run defense. The Commanders lose one day after playing last Monday, but it won’t matter against such a weak team like Houston.
- Two of the biggest disappointments square off in Denver this Sunday, as the Raiders will face the Broncos. To me, this game comes down to motivation. I believe Las Vegas is completely deflated after losing against a team whose coaching staff had no experience at all. That was embarrassing. They will still be without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and their defense is awful. Meanwhile, I believe the Broncos are still fighting, which will be especially true in front of their home fans. They will be looking for payback after losing 32-23 against Vegas earlier this year. Interestingly enough, the Broncos have allowed the fewest points in the league, but have scored the fewest points.
- I’ll take the Vikings to continue their fairy tale. They are 1.5-point underdogs at home against Dallas. They have won 7 in a row, all by a margin of 8 points or less. Still, they put up 481 total yards of offense on the road in Buffalo against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Dallas had major coverage issues last week in Green Bay. They have also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards so far in 2022, so Dalvin Cook is likely to exploit this weakness. The Cowboys are 2-5 in their last seven trips to Minnesota.
- I have founds lots of arguments supporting the Bengals, but I’ll still go with the Steelers +4.5 points. T.J. Watt was back on the field last week, and as usual the defense looked 10 times better with him in the lineup. The Steelers have won 5 of their past 6 games at home against the Bengals, so they should be fine keeping it close enough to cover this spread, especially with Ja’Marr Chase still out of the lineup. However, I am scared by the fact that Cincy has the revenge factor in their favor, they are coming off their bye week, they are 11-2 after an ATS win and they dominated the first meeting against Pittsburgh with 432 total yards versus only 267.
- 6 of the last 8 meetings between the Chiefs and the Chargers have been decided by 7 points or less. I am banking on this trend to continue, which is why I would tend to grab L.A. +7 points. Will Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett play? At the time I made this video, the answer was still unknown. Kansas City will run more than usual in order to attack the weak point of the Chargers defense. That will milk the clock and help the underdog cover the spread, in my humble opinion.
- I may as well flip a coin in order to predict the 49ers versus Cardinals game. I am clearly not betting this game. For starters, I don’t even know yet if Kyler Murray will suit up or not. If forced to bet, I would go with the Niners -8 points, but with very little confidence. San Francisco is 15-4 on Monday Night Football, whereas Arizona is 2-9 in that same situation. The 49ers will try to get revenge for two divisional losses against the Cards last year.
I hope you enjoyed my NFL Week 11 picks! It has been a pleasure sharing them with you, I appreciate you a lot my friend! See you again soon!!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)