NFL Picks Week #11 (2019 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Written Wednesday November 14th, 2019 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

Official Picks

PICK #1: Houston Texans +4 at Baltimore Ravens (rated 4 stars)

The Ravens have impressed a lot of people, including myself, with their three most recent wins: 30-16 in Seattle, 37-20 against the Patriots and an easy 49-13 victory in Cincinnati last week.

Lamar Jackson is such a different animal. No other quarterback matches his elusiveness. He is a lot of fun to watch!

However, I like the Texans to cover the spread here. DeShaun Watson is also very good and he can make plays out of nothing. Plus, he has more experience.

The Texans are a very solid team and you couldn’t tell they had lost J.J. Watt after allowing just three points to the Jaguars in their last game.

Obviously, I also like the fact that Houston is coming off its bye week. They have had plenty of time to analyze game tapes.

PICK #2: Oakland Raiders -10.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals (rated 3 stars)

Many of my betting angles are involved in this matchup. Let’s kick off with the ones favoring the Bengals.

Oakland may let down a little bit after an emotional meeting with the Chargers. Also, Cincy will be motivated to make amends after a disastrous performance against the Ravens last week.

That being said, there are quite a few things to like about the Raiders.

First, they get three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday night game. Also, they will be at home for the third straight week. Not much traveling there!

Last year, Cincinnati beat those same Raiders by a 30-to-16 score. Payback time?

This game has all appearances of a sandwich game for the Bengals. Indeed, they faced Baltimore last week and are awaiting the Steelers next week.

Finally, I’d like to mention how Zac Taylor’s squad will be traveling through three time zones to face Oakland.

PICK #3: Denver Broncos +10.5 at Minnesota Vikings (rated 2 stars)

In his first NFL start, Brandon Allen did a lot of good things in a 24-19 win over the Browns. His arm strength is average, but he showed good poise and accuracy. Playing in a hostile environment like Minnesota won’t be easy, though, but at least he got two weeks to get ready for this matchup.

Denver stayed home for four of their past five weeks, while the Vikings had some traveling to do recently. Minnesota could letdown a bit after a key meeting in Dallas last week.

Wide receiver Adam Thielen did not practice Thursday. Will he be good to go on Sunday? His status seems pretty unclear right now. The Vikings might elect to sit him out, since they are facing a weaker opponent and have their bye week upcoming

PICK #4: Washington Redskins -1.5 vs New York Jets (rated 1 star)

This is a non-conference road game for the Jets, which will definitely look much less motivating than facing their neighbors from New York, the Giants.

The Redskins are coming off their bye week, which is always a big plus.

Dwayne Haskins had been awful this season, but he played his best football of the season in Buffalo. He completed 15 of his 22 passes for 144 yards, and most importantly he did not turn the ball over. He kept Washington in the game, but this time they’ll need to punch the ball in the end zone instead of settling for field goals.


Have a nice weekend!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)