NFL Picks Week #11 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


There are three official picks this week:

Written Wednesday November 14th, 2018 (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Pittsburgh Steelers -5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (rated 3 stars)

The revenge factor is huge in this one. I bet the Steelers remember vividly losing at home twice to the Jags last season, including a 45-42 playoff loss. After starting the season 3-1, Jacksonville is now on a 5-game losing skid. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has been rolling of late with 5 straight wins. They will be looking to CRUSH their opponents. Also, elite teams benefiting from additional days of rest are often deadly, which is the case here considering Pittsburgh played last Thursday (which means three extra days of preparation). Add in the fact that Le’Veon Bell is now officially holding out for the entire season, and we have a recipe for a team wanting to prove they don’t need him to win.


PICK #2: Indianapolis Colts -2 vs Tennessee Titans (rated 2 stars)

Both teams are riding a winning streak and playing better football. Some of the arguments favoring Indy: they have not had to travel in three consecutive weeks, and they will be trying to avenge a couple of 2017 losses to those same Titans.


PICK #3: Tampa Bay Bucs +2 at New York  Giants (rated 2 stars)

What happened to the Bucs offense last week in a 16-3 home loss to Washington? I fully expect Fitzpatrick and his teammates to rebound this week. The Giants are losing one day of game planning after playing on Monday Night Football against the Niners. Also, they could potentially be looking ahead to a much more exciting matchup against divisional foes next week (the Eagles).

System on Totals

After suffering a 5-game losing streak, the system went 1-1 last week. The overall record in 2018 now stands at 9-8 (52.9%). Nothing to write home about, but let's see if it can catch fire once again until the remainder of the season.

Two plays qualify this week: over 51 Panthers-Lions and over 47.5 Steelers-Jaguars.


I've got two free unofficial picks for you this week:

  • Houston Texans -2.5 at Washington Redskins. I picked the Skins as a 1-star play last week despite being pretty worried about their offensive line which suffered many injuries. Washington did win in Tampa Bay, but I believe they crash down against a much superior team this week. The Texans also get 7 days of extra preparation since they were on their bye week.
  • Seattle Seahawks -2.5 vs Green Bay Packers. I don't like this one as much, but my method is telling me it's close to being a profitable bet (which is why it is considered a lean). Seattle will try to avenge a 17-9 loss in Green Bay last year. Also, traveling through two time zones on a short week won't be easy for the Packers.


Thanks for reading, I appreciate a lot!

Professor MJ