NFL PICKS (WEEK #10)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Written Wednesday November 9^th, 2022 at 10 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

 

Last week, I ended up making 4 bets in the NFL on sides and totals, those picks being shared on my Patreon page, and they yielded 2 wins and 2 losses. Our season record now stands at 26 wins and 20 losses for a win percentage of 56.5%.

For Week 10, I’ve got 3 picks that I like. It will be a pleasure to share them with you in this post, thanks for being here my friend!

 

PICK #1: UNDER 45.5 VIKINGS-BILLS

The total has dropped all the way from 48.5 to 45.5 now. Who knows if it will keep diminishing as the week progresses or not.

Last week, Josh Allen got hit by a pass rusher and hurt his throwing elbow. He stayed in the game, but he repeatedly kept sharing his arm in the fourth quarter. Video replays suggest a sprained ligament around the elbow joint. That type of injury may not prevent Allen from playing this Sunday, but it can cause stiffness and soreness. It could easily affect his velocity and accuracy.

Moreover, Allen’s play has deteriorated recently. In his first six games, he averaged 330 passing yards versus only 211 in his last two. The TD-to-INT ratio has gotten worse as well. Indeed, he racked up 17 TD passes versus four interceptions during his first six matches compared to 2 TD passes versus 4 picks against Green Bay and the Jets.

The public’s perception is the Bills are involved in high-scoring affairs often. However, let’s focus on their last 6 games. The total number of points scored in those contests were 40, 43, 41, 44, 44 and 37. In other words, not a single one has exceeded the current total of 45.5.

I also like the fact that the under has posted an 11-3 record in Buffalo’s last 14 games following a straight up loss. That can indicate that they tend to play more conservatively after a defeat.

Some may point out the fact that Minnesota has been involved in more high-scoring games, as shown by the 11-5 record in favor of the over in their past 16 games. But if you focus on games played on turf, the under is doing well via a 7-3 record in Minnesota’s past 10 games on such a playing surface.

The weather may also have an effect. The temperature will feel like 30 degrees Fahrenheit, we may have some rain and snow, and there will be some wind as well. Such conditions would entice both teams to run the ball more often, which will milk the clock more quickly. Give me the under in the Minnesota versus Buffalo matchup!

 

PICK #2: CLEVELAND BROWNS +4 AT MIAMI DOLPHINS

Sharp money is on Cleveland. Based on more than 6000 wagers, 43% of the spread bets are on the Browns, but 80% of the total money was invested on them. In other words, the majority of sports bettors prefer to take Miami, but a huge proportion of the total amount of cash wagered is on Cleveland. That shows how the big gamblers like the Browns in this spot.

The rest factor also provides an edge to Cleveland since they are coming off their bye week, while the Dolphins played a hard-fought game in Chicago last week.

Miami’s defense is a source of concern. They allowed 32 points to the Bears last week and 27 to the Lions the week before. Meanwhile, the Browns has improved lately, as evidenced by their 13 points allowed against the Bengals and 23 to Baltimore.

In the end, I believe the Browns can keep the game close enough to cover the 4-point spread.

 

PICK #3: TAMPA BAY BUCS STRAIGHT UP VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The public tends to fall in love with teams that are frequently covering the spread, and who do so by a large amount, on average. The sportsbooks tend to adjust by inflating the line on such teams, which creates value on their opponents.

Using this theory, here is a NFL betting system that has produced a 353-273-18 record against the spread over many years:

“Bet a team whose current winning percentage is not above 60% if their opponent has beaten the spread by an average of at least 5 points so far in the season. This betting angle can only be used starting at Week 5 of the regular season.”

We avoid teams who have won more than 60% of their games because that would make them too popular in the eyes of sports bettors. In this case, the Bucs hold a 4-5 record, so we are good.

Now, the Seahawks’ performance against the spread in each of their first nine games has been as follows: +12.5, +11, +19.5, +12.5, -1.5, +6, -5, -11.5 and +7. If you take the average, you obtain +5.6 points.

In case you are confused, here is what I mean by +12.5 points for last week. The Seahawks 2.5-point underdogs in Arizona, but they won the game by a 10-point margin. That means they outperformed the expectations by 12.5 points.

Please also note that the Seahawks will be on the road for the third time in four weeks. And this trip to Germany is obviously a very long one for them.

Seattle’s defense is weaker defending the pass than the run, which fits well for Tampa since they are very bad running the ball anyway.

Only 38% of spread bets have been placed on Tampa, while 74% of the total money has been on the Bucs. Again, this shows how sharp action is going on Tampa. I’ll take my chances with them.

 

UNOFFICIAL PICKS

Let’s continue with unofficial picks on the remaining games, just for fun!

• In the Thursday night game, I like the Panthers +3 points against the Falcons. Carolina played very badly in Cincinnati last week, so you might expect them to give up for the rest of the season. However, this is a divisional game at home, so they will fight. Baker Mayfield gave them a boost in the second half last week. The Panthers will try to avenge a heart-breaking overtime loss against those same Falcons a couple of weeks ago, a game in which Carolina had the edge in total yards gained.
• Last Sunday, the Bills were 8.5-point favorites against the Vikings. Since then, the line has kept dropping and dropping. At the time I made this video, the spread was now 4. The possibility of Josh Allen not playing is making it a tough pick. Even though the Vikings are not as good as their 7-1 record indicates, I would tend to grab Minnesota +4.
• I’ll go with the Lions +3 in Chicago, even though Justin Fields has showed great flashes over the past three weeks. Detroit should easily put some points on the board, which will make it a close game.
• Give me the Broncos as 3-point underdogs in Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill’s status is still up in the air, Denver is coming off its bye week and they will keep building some momentum after defeating Jacksonville in their last game.
• Jacksonville’s defense is better than Kansas City’s, and their offense is 10^th in terms of their EPA (Expected Points Added), so in my opinion they’ll be able to cover the 9-point spread. I don’t like the fact that the Chiefs will be at home for the third consecutive week, though.
• Let’s go with yet another underdog with the Texans +5 in New York. Betting small road underdogs who won 6 games or less the year before has been a very lucrative betting strategy over the years (a 240-148-10 record ATS). Both teams should be able to run the ball effectively, and I believe that ultimately the Giants will win a tight one.
• Indianapolis’ defense has been very good, especially since the return of Shaquille Leonard. But their offense is so bad with Sam Ehlinger under center that it’s difficult to put money on the Colts. I expect Vegas to rebound nicely after two straight losses. They will blow out Indy, so I am taking the Raiders laying 6 points. Before I move on to the next prediction, let me mention the secret word of the week for the purpose of the underdog contest. This week it is: luck. Make sure you include this word in your post.
• Cowboys -5 or Packers +5? The numbers tell me to bet Dallas. They are also coming off their bye week. Road favorites off their bye week have done EXTREMELY well over the years. The Packers are banged up. Still, my gut feeling likes Green Bay to do enough to keep it within 5 points. Ultimately, I would go with the Packers +5.
• The revenge factor suggests taking Arizona, but I’ll go with the Rams -3. After facing the tough Bucs and 49ers defenses, L.A. will have an opportunity to put more points on the board. And they have a much more solid defense than Arizona does.
• I prefer to side with the 49ers -7 points at home against the Chargers. San Francisco will be at home for the third time in four weeks, and the only road game was in Los Angeles, so not a very long trip. The Niners have the better offense, especially with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen out. And they have the much better defense as well. Hopefully, Deebo Samuel comes back to make their offense even more explosive, especially with the recent addition of Christian McCaffrey.
• The Monday night game features a couple of NFC East teams. I am torn in this one, but if I was forced to bet I’d go with the Eagles -11. The only hope for the Commanders is if their defense can keep them in the game because the offense with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback averages 19 points per game. That could happen, but I am leaning slightly towards Philly as 11-point favorites.

Thank you for reading and I’ll see you again next week!!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)