NFL Picks Week #10 (2018 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


There are four official picks this week:

Written Wednesday November 7th, 2018 (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK #1: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 vs New Orleans Saints (rated 4 stars)

There are many factors going in Cincy’s favor this week. First of all, they are coming off their bye week. Secondly, the Saints just picked up two big wins over the Vikings and the Rams; a meeting with a weaker and non-conference team is much less exciting. Also, the Bengals are at home for a fifth week out of the past six (by considering their bye week as being at home), so they should have very fresh legs.


PICK #2: Oakland Raiders +10 vs Los Angeles Chargers (rated 3 stars)

I can’t believe how much this line is inflated. The Raiders are the home team in this game, and I don’t believe they are as bad as what they’ve shown us thus far. They do have some talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball with Derek Carr, Jalen Richard, Martavis Bryant, Brandon LaFell, Jordy Nelson and Jared Cook. They will be fighting hard in this division matchup and I doubt they will get blown out. They are also getting three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday night. They will be looking to avenge a week 5 loss to those same Chargers (26 to 10 in L.A.). If Oakland has a little bit of pride left, they will show up after such a putrid performance on national television last week against the Niners.


PICK #3: Arizona Cardinals +17 at Kansas City Chiefs (rated 2 stars)

You never feel comfortable laying a high-octane offense like the Chiefs. But I’ll do it anyway. Kansas City could be looking ahead to a HUGE clash with the Rams next week (a potential Super Bowl matchup). It will be easy to look past a mediocre team like Arizona. The Cards are coming off their bye week so they’ve had time to game plan, and quarterback Josh Rosen has been improving nicely over the past few weeks. Most bookies have the Chiefs as 16.5-point favorites, but Sports Interaction currently has Arizona +17 at -110 (1.91 in decimal format).


PICK #4: Washington Redskins +3 at Tampa Bay Bucs (rated 1 star)

The Redskins just lost two offensive linemen to injuries for the rest of the year, which hurts for sure. But Tampa is the team that has allowed the most points in the NFL this season. I do expect Washington to rebound following a bad home loss to the Falcons last week.

System on Totals

What is going on? This system kicked off the season 8-2, but has lost the past 5 picks so its record now stands at 8-7. Just barely above 50%. I'm curious to see how it does for the rest of the year.

There are a couple of plays according to this system for week #10: over 50 Chargers-Raiders and over 43.5 Giants-49ers.



Just one unofficial pick this week:

  • Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams are coming off their bye week. Who would have thought the Colts would have a better point differential than the Jaguars at this point of the season? Indy is +18, while Jacksonville is -36. I believe the Jaguars continue their slide and lose on the road. Indy is at home for the third time over the past four weeks. They will be looking to avenge two losses against the Jags in 2017.


Good luck, guys!

Professor MJ