NFL Picks Week #1 (2023 regular season)



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Written September 7th, 2023 at 2 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)


Do you want a good NFL pick for Week 1?

In mid-July, I gave you three super early picks for the opening week of the regular season.

The article you are currently reading was written a few hours before the Lions-Chiefs opening game, and I would like to share another betting play with you for a game that will take place Sunday afternoon. Let's go!



In one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL, I am taking the Green Bay Packers straight up in Chicago. I know everyone is super excited to see what Justin Fields can do in his third year in the league, while Jordan Love is raising some question marks.

However, one thing is certain: the Packers defense is much better than Chicago’s. In terms of points allowed, Green Bay finished in the middle of the pack, while the Bears ranked dead last. Moreover, both starting safeties for Chicago are currently listed as questionable: Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker.

Speaking of injuries, I have to admit that having Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs tagged as questionable is a source of concern to me. Already thin at the wide receiver position, the Packers need at least one of them to be on the field this Sunday.

Green Bay also holds a big edge at another underrated position: the offensive line. According to, they believe the Packers own the 7th-best OL, whereas Chicago’s gets spot number 30. Green Bay’s running game should do well since they still have a great combo with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

I also believe that Jordan Love might surprise us with the quality of his play. I’m not saying he will light up the scoreboard, but he still spent two full years learning behind Aaron Rodgers so it’s not like he was a rookie that was quickly put into action. Over three preseason games, he completed 21 of 33 passes, a 64% completion rate, along with 3 TD passes and most importantly no interceptions. He is obviously not as great as Fields running with the football, but he’s got good escapability as well.

The Packers have owned the Bears with 8 straight wins over their NFC North division rivals. I believe the trend will continue, and the team from the frozen tundra opens the season with a W at Soldier Field.


Great news! I am very likely to do a live stream at halftime of the 1 pm games on Sunday in order to provide you with some great second half bets.

My method is quite simple, and yet generates awesome results. Let’s take the Houston vs Baltimore game for example. The Ravens are 10-point favorites.

Now, let’s say that they lead by 20 points at halftime. I run a program that looks at my huge NFL dataset of past games to find “similar” games. By “similar”, I mean teams that were favored to win by 8 to 12 points and who led by 18 to 22 points. How did these games play out in the second half?

Using this strategy has produced good profit for me over the years, and I hope I can help you earn some extra money as well!

The only problem is I don’t know whether I will be available or not. My sons are playing a critical baseball game Saturday afternoon, and if they win they will play a final game on Sunday afternoon. So, it all depends on whether my boys win on Saturday or not.

Check out my YouTube channel under the “Community” tab as I will update you on this on Saturday. If I can’t make it, we’ll have other opportunities this year for sure!


Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)