NFL Pick for Thursday Night Football in Week #9 (49ers vs Cardinals)

NFL PICK WEEK #9 - Thursday Night Football


University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.




LEAN: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 at Arizona Cardinals

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I don’t pick big favorites very often, but I’m gonna do it here. One more oddity: I don’t feel good betting teams coming off a blowout win, especially when facing a team coming off a blowout loss. Based on these elements, you wouldn’t expect me to take the Niners.

However, San Francisco has impressed so much that I cannot help picking them. Their defense is simply amazing. They have allowed just 11 points per game on average this year. Over the past four games, against the Browns, the Rams, the Redskins and the Panthers, they have surrendered just 5.75 points per game. That’s incredible!

Kyler Murray has done a good job thus far in his rookie season, but he has never faced such a tough defense in his career. He will be running for his life behind his suspect offensive line.

A few weeks ago, the Niners lost a couple of key guys on the offensive line: Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. Staley is tentatively expected to return this week. Getting the big fella back would be great news for San Francisco.

Both running backs David Johnson and Chase Edmonds seem likely to miss the game Thursday, but the Cards recently acquired Kenyan Drake from the Dolphins. However, coach Kingsbury admitted Drake won’t be ready for a full workload on a short week playing for a new team. Therefore, the running game will have trouble getting Kyler Murray some help.

The 49ers certainly remember losing both meetings to the Cards last season: 28-18 at home and 18-15 on the road. As a matter of fact, San Francisco has lost the past 8 meetings between the two squads!!! I’m sure they are looking for payback.

One could argue that the 49ers could be looking ahead to a critical matchup against the Seahawks next week. While this is concerning me a little bit, I don’t believe San Francisco is likely to take a divisional game too lightly, especially considering their 8-game losing skid against the Cards.

As I’ve mentioned in previous videos, road teams are doing well in Thursday night games this year. Indeed, they have beaten the spread on six out of eight weeks.

So to recap, I’m taking the Niners to win by 10 points or more in Arizona.

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)