NFL PICK WEEK #8 - Thursday Night Football

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

 

LEAN: Washington Redskins +15.5 at Minnesota Vikings

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This is clearly a sandwich game for the Vikings. They are coming off a divisional game in Detroit and they are awaiting meetings with the Chiefs and the Cowboys. It will be easy to look past the lowly Redskins.

As a true contrarian, I felt like it might be a good strategy to bet teams coming off a shutout loss. Since 1989, such teams hold a 118-95 record against the spread, which equates to a 55.4% win rate. Not too bad! Considering the Skins were shutout by the Niners last Sunday, that’s one more argument in their favor.

I don’t trust quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins nor Colt McCoy to succeed immediately. Thankfully, head coach Bill Callahan confirmed Case Keenum would get the start this Thursday. If you’re thinking long-term, perhaps Haskins is a viable option, but as a sports bettor I much prefer seeing Keenum under center in Minnesota. He still has thrown 9 TDs versus 4 picks this year, while completing 66% of his passes.

Speaking of Keenum, don’t forget he played in Minnesota a couple of years ago. He enjoyed a great season by throwing for more than 3500 yards with 22 TD passes and 7 interceptions. He is familiar with the Vikings and will be motivated to do well against his former team.

The big question mark, from an injury standpoint, is the status of star wide receiver Adam Thielen. He hurt his hamstring in Detroit and at first sight he was thought to be very unlikely to play on such a short turnaround. Thielen himself now claims he is optimistic he can suit up this Thursday. Why not make sure he fully recovers in time for a key matchup against the Chiefs next week, though?

People are wary of road teams on Thursday Night Football because of traveling issues. However, visiting teams are 4-2 against the spread in 2019 on Thursdays (I omitted the outcome of Week #1 since neither team was tired!).

I’m taking the Redskins to cover the 15.5 point spread.

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)