NFL PICK WEEK #7 - Thursday Night Football

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

 

LEAN: Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Denver Broncos

Here is the YouTube video version of this prediction.

It looked like Kansas City was going to cruise easily to a division title, especially with the Chargers crashing down. But hold on a second! The Chiefs are now going through a slump themselves, with the Raiders now breathing down their neck.

The Chiefs did not cover the spread in each of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have beaten the spread on two straight occasions. Will the trend continue or not?

I am NOT going to bet this game, but if I had to, I’d go with Kansas City.

The Chiefs lost their last two games, both at home. It might be a good thing to go on the road, where there won’t be as much pressure to do well. Maybe K.C. is trying to do too much. Playing in a tough environment like Denver, they’ll focus on executing things well and not trying to be too fancy.

If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like betting elite teams following a straight up loss. Not only do the Chiefs meet those criteria, but this angle seems to do even better on “focus” games, which includes playing on Thursday Night Football on a non-standard practice week.

The Chiefs are 4-2 despite facing good teams. If you remove the games against the Chiefs, their opponents hold a 16-10-1 record. As a comparison, Denver’s opponents are posting a 13-15 record (after removing matchups versus the Broncos).

Denver is coming off a nice shutout performance against the Titans. They’ll realize quickly that Kansas City has much more firepower on offense, though.

Sammy Watkins has a fairly good chance of suiting up this Thursday. However, Eric Fisher is still out and Cam Erving is questionable. If he can’t go, K.C. would have to call their third-string left tackle. They are also thin on the defensive line and have a couple of guys whose status is uncertain right now.

There are a couple of things that prevent me from making it an official pick. First, the revenge factor. Denver lost both meetings in 2018 by 6 and 7-point margins. Also, the Broncos will be playing a third game at home out of their past four matches.

So, as I said, I’m gonna go with the Chiefs to rebound after two straight home losses. However, a point spread of 3 seems fair to me, so I won’t bet this game!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)