NFL Pick for the NFC Championship Game (2019 regular season)
NFL PICK (NFC Championship Game)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Written January 16th, 2020 at 3 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Green Bay Packers +7.5 or San Francisco 49ers -7.5 ?
Let me tell you right off the bat that I’m not going to bet this game. I believe the Niners being 7.5-point favorites is fair and I don’t see much value on either side.
If you forced me to make a pick, I would go with San Francisco -7.5 points against Green Bay.
Based on everything I’ve seen from these two teams this year, I have to go with the 49ers. Their defense is way better than Green Bay’s. In terms of total yards allowed per game, San Francisco finished 2nd in the NFL compared to 18th for the Packers.
If you switch to the offense, the 49ers ranked 4th in the league for total yards versus 18th for Green Bay.
In other words, the Niners did better on both sides of the ball this season.
One might argue both teams allowed almost the same number of points in 2019. While that is true, San Francisco’s defense suffered many key injuries during the year. That’s why they surrendered more points in the second half of the season, but all of these guys are back and it showed big time last week against the Vikings.
The main reason I’m not betting this game is Aaron Rodgers. Unlike Jimmy Garoppolo, he has plenty of playoff experience and I find it difficult to bet against him as 7.5-point underdogs. He can carry the team on his shoulders and he’ll want to erase that bad 37-to-8 loss back in Week #12 against those same 49ers.
The 49ers hold a 5-1 record against the spread (ATS) when facing teams with a winning record. They are also 5-2 ATS over the past seven meetings with Green Bay.
Therefore, in the NFC Championship Game, I’m going with the San Francisco 49ers -7.5 points at home against the Green Bay Packers.
Enjoy the game!
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)