NFL DraftKings Optimal Lineups for Week #10 in 2020 regular season

DraftKings DFS Lineups (NFL WEEK #10)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Are you looking for an optimal DraftKings lineup for Week 10 in the NFL?

I wrote a program in R (a great statistical software) which finds the lineup that maximizes projected points by meeting the $50,000 salary cap, of course.

Where do my player projections come from? They are a mix of:

  • My own predictions;
  • Projected points provided by some reliable websites.

Before I suggest a few specific lineups for this weekend, let me start off by presenting the top 5 players at each position, as determined by “Expected Points Per Thousand Dollar Salary” (which I’m going to call EPPT from now on).

In other words, I’m presenting you the best bargains at each position.

TOP 5 QBs

  • Kyler Murray (ARI) vs BUF
    • 38 EPPT (27.0 expected points, $8,000 salary)
  • Derek Carr (LV) vs DEN
    • 33 EPPT
  • Daniel Jones (NYG) vs PHI
    • 29 EPPT
  • Carson Wentz (PHI) at NYG
    • 29 EPPT
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs LAC
    • 31 EPPT

 

TOP 5 RBs

  • Mike Davis (CAR) vs TB
    • 05 EPPT
  • D’Andre Swift (DET) vs WAS
    • 76 EPPT
  • Aaron Jones (GB) vs JAX
    • 75 EPPT
  • Josh Jacobs (LV) vs DEN
    • 74 EPPT
  • Leonard Fournette (TB) at CAR
    • 73 EPPT

 

TOP 5 WRs

  • Jakeem Grant (MIA) vs LAC
    • 30 EPPT
  • Robby Anderson (CAR) vs TB
    • 66 EPPT
  • Keenan Allen (LAC) at MIA
    • 59 EPPT
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA) at LAR
    • 57 EPPT
  • Emmanuel Sanders (NO) vs SF
    • 50 EPPT

 

TOP 5 TEs

  • Austin Hooper (CLE) vs HOU
    • 56 EPPT
  • Logan Thomas (WAS) at DET
    • 52 EPPT
  • Hunter Henry (LAC) at MIA
    • 49 EPPT
  • Darren Waller (LV) vs DEN
    • 47 EPPT
  • Evan Engram (NYG) vs PHI
    • 40 EPPT

 

TOP 5 DST

  • Lions (vs WAS)
    • 62 EPPT
  • Rams (vs SEA)
    • 55 EPPT
  • Raiders (vs DEN)
    • 52 EPPT
  • Saints (vs SF)
    • 50 EPPT
  • Giants (vs PHI)
    • 19 EPPT

 

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

Building a good lineup for GPP versus Cash games is completely different.

For those of you who are not familiar with the terms:

  • GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool. GPPs are tournaments with a large number of contestants fighting for big prizes, where only a small fraction of people end up making money (10%-20%).
  • Cash games are 50/50 endeavors with smaller payouts. For example, you may have 10 persons competing against each other. The bottom five loses its buy-in, while the top five doubles up (minus a commission taken out by DraftKings).

A good lineup for GPPs may be a bad one in Cash formats.

In summary, GPP lineups must ideally have the following two characteristics:

  • You want at the very least one player in your lineup whose scoring is positively correlated with another. The best example is a QB-WR duo. If the WR catches three TD passes, chances are your QB will have a good day too.
  • You want to own 1-2 player(s) that will make you stand out from the crowd. In other words, you want them to be owned by a small fraction of participants on DraftKings.

For these reasons, this section on optimal lineups will be split into two separate cases.

1 GOOD LINEUP FOR CASH GAMES

According to my R program, the lineup that maximizes your expected points is:

  • QB = Kyler Murray (ARI, $8,000)
  • RB = Mike Davis (CAR, $4,000)
  • RB = Aaron Jones (GB, $7,100)
  • WR = Jakeem Grant (MIA, $3,000)
  • WR = Robby Anderson (CAR, $6,100)
  • WR = Keenan Allen (LAC, $7,100)
  • TE = Austin Hooper (CLE, $3,900)
  • FLEX = Alvin Kamara (NO, $8,200)
  • DST = Lions (DET, $2,600)

In my opinion, that is a solid lineup for Cash games. It produces an expected 152.6 fantasy points.

3 GOOD LINEUPS FOR GPPs

Here is how I suggest proceeding when setting up your GPP lineups:

  • Step #1: Find a good QB-WR tandem from the same team by looking at the best bargains at these two positions;
  • Step #2: Pick players at other positions which bring a good bang for your buck;
  • Step #3: Avoid including players that bring negative correlation in your lineup. For example, you do not want a RB from the same team as your QB-WR duo. Nor do you want your DST to be facing one of your offensive players!

This week, here are good QB-WR combos that can form the basis of your GPP lineups in Week 10:

  • Tua Tagovailoa and Jakeem Grant (or DeVante Parker);
  • Daniel Jones and Sterling Shepard;
  • Kyler Murray and Larry Fitzgerald.

Starting from those duos, I can recommend a few GPP lineups. You can use any of them, or you can change a few players based on your preferences (you may disagree with me on some players, and that is okay!).

GPP lineup #1:

  • QB = Tua Tagovailoa (MIA, $5,600)
  • RB = Mike Davis (CAR, $4,000)
  • RB = Aaron Jones (GB, $7,100)
  • WR = Jakeem Grant (MIA, $3,000)
  • WR = Robby Anderson (CAR, $6,100)
  • WR = Keenan Allen (LAC, $7,100)
  • TE = Darren Waller (LV, $5,900)
  • FLEX = Alvin Kamara (NO, $8,200)
  • DST = Saints (NO, $3,000)

 

GPP lineup #2:

  • QB = Daniel Jones (NYG, $5,200)
  • RB = Mike Davis (CAR, $4,000)
  • RB = Aaron Jones (GB, $7,100)
  • WR = DeVante Parker (MIA, $5,000)
  • WR = Tyler Lockett (SEA, $6,500)
  • WR = Sterling Shepard (NYG, $5,000)
  • TE = Darren Waller (LV, $5,900)
  • FLEX = Alvin Kamara (NO, $8,200)
  • DST = Saints (NO, $3,000)

 

GPP lineup #3:

  • QB = Kyler Murray (ARI, $8,000)
  • RB = Mike Davis (CAR, $4,000)
  • RB = Aaron Jones (GB, $7,100)
  • WR = DeVante Parker (MIA, $5,000)
  • WR = Tyler Lockett (CAR, $6,500)
  • WR = Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, $3,900)
  • TE = Hunter Henry (LAC, $4,100)
  • FLEX = Alvin Kamara (NO, $8,200)
  • DST = Saints (NO, $3,000)

 

I hope you found this article insightful. My goal is to help you crush your opponents and rack up some winnings through the use of my projected points and my program that finds the best lineups.

Come back next week for more DFS advice! Go beat your opponents this weekend, buddy!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)