How It Works
Here is how "Basketball Live Betting" works:
1) Within seconds of the end of each quarter of every NBA game, we provide our picks. Those picks are based on numbers coming from a huge dataset (15,000+ games) which contains information on ALL games from the last 14 NBA seasons to help you CRUSH live NBA lines!
2) We make one of 3 recommendations based on the data and the current live in-play line: a) Bet the road team; b) Bet the home team; c) Don’t bet.
3) YOU are the ultimate decision-maker.
Let’s take a look at a concrete example: Detroit Pistons versus Denver Nuggets on November 12th (2016) at halftime.
Pregame spread: Pistons +5 vs Nuggets -5
Current score (at halftime): Pistons 57 vs Nuggets 49
From the Nuggets’ perspective, they were favorites to win the game by 5 points prior to the game, and they were now trailing by 8 at halftime. Sportsbooks set the 2nd half line at Nuggets -5.5, which means they were favorites to win the rest of the game (quarters 3-4, and OT if necessary) by 5.5 points. In other words, sportsbooks felt like the Pistons would win the game by an average of 2.5 points, i.e. an 8-point lead to diminish by 5.5.
Among all games from the past 14 seasons (15,000+ games), we first consider all games where the home team was a pregame 5-point favorite but ended up trailing by 8 at halftime. What happened in the second half of those games?
- Number of times road teams beat a +5.5 second half line: 9
- Number of times home teams beat a -5.5 second half line: 4
We see that betting the road team (in this case the Detroit Pistons) seems to have a 69.2% (9 / 13) chance of winning.
You may not feel extremely confident betting on the Pistons because of the small sample size (we only found 13 games which matched exactly the pregame spread and the current score). That’s why the next step is to make our criteria more flexible: consider past games with similar pregame spread (± 0.5 or ± 1) and/or similar current score (± 1).
Let’s look at the results sent by “Basketball Live Betting” within seconds of the 2nd quarter ending:
|
Pregame spread ± |
Current score ± |
Road wins |
Home wins |
Road win % |
|
0 |
0 |
9 |
4 |
69.2% |
|
0.5 |
0 |
30 |
11 |
73.2% |
|
1 |
0 |
39 |
24 |
61.9% |
|
0 |
1 |
20 |
16 |
55.6% |
|
0.5 |
1 |
70 |
43 |
61.9% |
Just to make sure things are crystal clear to you, let’s go over the details of the last row from the above table. In this case, we only consider games from the past 14 seasons which had the same pregame spread ± 0.5 (i.e. games where the home team was favorite by 4.5, 5.0 or 5.5 points) and the same halftime score ± 1 (i.e. games where the road team led by 7, 8 or 9 points). Among the 15,000+ games in our dataset, we found exactly 113 that matched those criteria: there were 70 where the road team beat a +5.5 second half line and 43 where it lost.
As you can see from the last column in the table above, all signs point toward betting the road team. For those who did bet on the Detroit Pistons +5.5 for the second half, they won easily (Detroit “won” the second half by 3, whereas we could afford them to lose by at most 5, so we basically beat the line by 8.5 points).
The numbers won’t always be as clear as to what team you should place a bet on. Ultimately, you are the one making the call. We do offer a recommendation to our clients based on previous experience, but feel free to adjust your strategy based on your risk tolerance level. You might want to bet on a certain team, despite our suggestion to refrain from betting on either team. Or you might want to avoid placing a bet even though we recommend doing so. It’s up to you!
That’s a big contrast with sports handicappers that tell you what to do, without you knowing anything about the reasons behind it. They may very well draw a team from a hat and collect your hard-earned money until you realize it was a scam. You are just letting them driving your own car. With the service provided by “Basketball Live Betting”, you make the decision and you can back it up with solid and reliable numbers.
The method is very intuitive and simple to understand. There isn’t a complex mathematical model behind it. Remember that often in life, the simplest things are also the most effective ones. “Basketball Live Betting” simply works and we want you to joint our list of happy customers. Click here to get on board NOW!