Free NHL Picks for October 17, 2017 by Professor MJ



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.


Good Tuesday everyone, we have a busy night in the NHL with a total of 11 games! However, the lines seem reasonable to me, except for a couple of plays that I could recommend. But basically, there is only one bet that I really like.

PICK #1: Florida Panthers +128 (decimal 2.28) at the Philadelphia Flyers

The Panthers are off to a 2-2 start, which is fine considering the strength of opposition so far: Tampa Bay twice, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Their combined record is 12-5-1.

Meanwhile, the Flyers have exceeded expectations with 3 wins out of 5 games. They are coming off an impressive 8-2 beating of the Washington Capitals. To me, that’s one of the reasons I’m going with Florida because I feel like Philly might relax a little bit. This is certainly not one of the most motivating games for the Flyers these days; they have just faced Nashville and Washington, and have Nashville and the high-powered Edmonton offense up next. That can be viewed as a “sandwich” game, in my opinion.

All three meetings last season were won by the Flyers, but two of them occurred in extra time. Prior to that, the Panthers had won three out of the previous four contests, including a couple in a shootout. I do expect a close game, which is good news when you are betting the underdog.

I like the fact that 76% of the bets have gone on Philly so far, yet the line has not moved much. People are overrating the Flyers because of their last outing, and the fact that they have scored 13 goals over their previous two games. I’m taking the Panthers.


Though not an official pick, I am leaning towards the New Jersey Devils +113 (decimal 2.13) against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa has stormed out of the gates with a 5-1 record to this 2017-2018 season. I don’t mean to downgrade what they have accomplished so far, but please note that all of their games have ended with a one-goal deficit (except their season opener where they beat the Panthers 5-3, thanks to an empty-net goal). The Lightning are playing the second leg of back-to-back games and are sending backup goalie Peter Budaj in net for the first time of the season. After getting a one-game rest, Cory Schneider goes back between the pipes for the Devils.


I’m also considering taking the Colorado Avalanche +154 (decimal 2.54) at the Nashville Predators. The Preds are still without Ryan Ellis, while the status of Roman Josi and Nick Bonino is unclear for tonight. Nashville is coming off an emotional match against the Blackhawks, whom they eliminated in four straight games in the first round of the playoffs last year, so the emotions won’t be running as high tonight. However, I’m worried about the fact that Colorado has lost six straight meetings with Nashville.


Thank you for your time, I appreciate a lot!

Professor MJ

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