Free NHL Picks for November 6, 2017 by Professor MJ



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Hello sports investors! I’ve got a couple of NHL picks for you today. Time has not permitted me to post regularly about hockey, but we are 6-2 over our past eight picks (1-0 on November 3rd, 2-1 on October 30th and 3-1 on October 24th). Let’s see if we can keep our winning ways tonight!

PICK #1: Dallas Stars -139 (decimal 1.72) vs Winnipeg Jets

Prior to the start of the season, the Jets were projected to have a .476 record compared to .559 for Dallas (according to Vegas’ lines). Do we have reason to believe those numbers need any adjustments based on what we’ve observed so far? Personally, I don’t think so.

Winnipeg has won 7 of its first 13 games, which is slightly above .500. Granted, they have lost three games in extra time, while not winning any so maybe they were a bit unlucky. As for Dallas, they have won 8 of their first 14 games. They were off to a difficult start, but have won 7 of their last 10, so my guess is a .559 record is just fine.

That being said, a road team with a .476 record facing a home team with a .559 record has approximately a 38.6% chance of winning. In terms of money lines: Jets +159 versus Stars -159, or if you prefer decimal format that’s Jets 2.59 versus 1.63. So under current circumstances I’ll be taking Dallas at -139 (decimal 1.72).

My only concern is the fact that the Jets have beaten the Stars in each of the past five meetings (although only one of them happened in Dallas).

PICK #2: Minnesota Wild +113 (decimal 2.13) at Boston Bruins

Both teams will be pretty well-rested. The Wild are coming off six straight home games, so they did not have to travel much recently. As for the Bruins, tonight’s match will be their third consecutive in Boston (seventh home game over their past 8!).

Both teams are also fairly banged up. Minnesota will be missing Charlie Coyle and Zach Parise, whereas the Bruins won’t have David Backes, Adam McQuaid and probably not David Krejci either.

Boston is experiencing a scoring drought, as shown by their 10 goals scored over their last 5 games!

My projections on this game ended up being Minnesota -113 versus Boston +113, so I’ll be betting them with a positive money line here.

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Professor MJ