Free NBA Picks for October 25, 2017 by Professor MJ



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Hello guys, I’m pretty excited because I’ve got a 5-star play tonight (only our second of the season). Before moving on with my picks for Wednesday, let’s update our record:

  • 5 star bets = 1-0
  • 3 star bets = 3-1
  • 2 star bets = 1-2-1
  • 1 star bets = 1-0

TOTAL: 6-3-1

Let’s now have a look at 3 bets that I believe are profitable!

PICK #1: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies (rated 5 stars)

I like many things about this play. First of all, it is not surprising that 83% of the bets are going on Memphis since they are 3-0, while Dallas is posting a 0-4 record. And yet, the spread opened at 5 with Pinnacle, and has gone down to 4.5 since then. That’s a good indication that sharp money is backing Dallas.

Before the season began, Vegas lines were implying that Memphis would finish the season with a .457 record compared to .427 for Dallas. Under such circumstances, if the line for tonight’s game had been set prior to the start of the season it would have been something like Grizzlies +2 vs Mavericks -2. I’m fully aware that these two teams have gone in complete opposite directions thus far, but I’m not the type of person that will overreact to recent results, so my personal opinion is that a 6.5-point swing (the Mavs are 4.5-point dogs rather than 2-point favorites) based on just a few games is too much.

Recent meetings between these two teams have been going well for the Mavs, as they have posted a 5-2 record against the spread over the past 7 matchups.

Injuries are not playing a significant role in this match. JaMychal Green and Ben McLemore are out for Memphis, while Dallas will be without Seth Curry, Josh McRoberts and maybe Devin Harris. These injuries are a wash, basically.

The Grizzlies are coming off two huge victories: at home against the Warriors and at Houston, perhaps the two strongest teams in the NBA. A letdown is highly likely tonight.

PICK #2: Philadelphia 76ers +4 vs Houston Rockets (rated 3 stars)

Don’t be misled by Houston’s seven-game winning streak over Philadelphia; they are actually 3-4 against the spread in those games. As a matter of fact, the Sixers have beaten the spread on 6 of the past 9 meetings against the Rockets.

Injuries are also a fairly big factor in this game since Houston will be missing star guard Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza (he is leading his team in minutes per game, and finished second last year) and Nene Hilario.

There’s only one thing I don’t like too much about this game, and is why it is not rated higher: Houston is coming off a home loss to Memphis, so they are not likely to take this game lightly. Meanwhile, the 76ers put in a strong effort in Detroit which gave them their first win of the season. Joel Embiid was pretty upset about being forced to rest the previous game in Toronto and he responded well with a 30-point performance against the Pistons. Ben Simmons had a triple-double in his fourth career game (the former #1 pick in the 2016 draft that missed the entire season last year).

82% of spread bets have gone on Houston with the line moving half a point. I like it.

PICK #3: Los Angeles Lakers +7 vs Washington Wizards (rated 1 star)

Why not go for one more play where the public strongly disagrees with me? Only 20% of spread bets are backing LA.

The only injury worth of note is Markieff Morris; I have penalized Washington 5% on their final estimated win probability because of that. The Wizards will be playing on one day of rest, compared to two for the Lakers, which is another small edge in favor of Los Angeles.

What may be underestimated here is the potential letdown by Washington, thanks to a “sandwich” game. Indeed, they have just played in Denver and could be looking ahead to a huge game in Golden State this upcoming Friday.

However, I don’t like how comfortable the Wizards have been playing at the Lakers; they have won the past 5 meetings over there (4-1 against the spread in those games).



I really want to thank you for taking the time to read this report, I appreciate a lot!

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Professor MJ