Free NBA Picks for November 7, 2017 by Professor MJ



University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.



Hi guys, with 10 games on the menu in the NBA tonight, I’ve found two good plays; one that is rated 3 stars and the other 2 stars. Let me reveal my arguments to you.

PICK #1: Utah Jazz -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers (rated 3 stars)

First, let’s start with the negative elements of information if you are planning to bet Utah: 1) the Sixers will be more rested, having benefited from three full days of rest compared to only one for the Jazz; 2) all four losses by Philadelphia were against tough opponents (Washington, Boston, Toronto and Houston) so they have been doing a solid job thus far this season.

Let’s move on to the good news now. Utah is very healthy, while the Sixers will be resting their star player, Joel Embiid, and point guard Jerryd Bayless will also miss the game because of a wrist injury. The number one overall pick from last year’s draft, Markelle Fultz, will also miss his sixth consecutive game.

The 76ers are coming off four straight wins, but the last two were against weaker opponents (Atlanta and Indiana), which is not a good preparation for a tough road game in Utah. In contrast, the Jazz have dropped their latest two matches versus tough opposition (Toronto and Houston).

Finally, recent meetings have been hugely in favor of Utah. They are 9-0 over the past nine meetings (6-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games). Philly has not won in Utah in its last 12 tries. Also, last year’s two meetings were blowout wins by the Jazz, as shown by the 17 and 25-point deficits (Embiid played one of these two games).

PICK #2: Denver Nuggets -11.5 vs Brooklyn Nets (rated 2 stars)

My statistical models believe the Nuggets should be established as 12.1-point favorites. The difference with the actual point spread is minimal, but situational factors have led me to bet this game anyway.

Denver has no injuries (except Juan Hernangomez, but his impact is extremely minimal), while Brooklyn is unlikely to have Trevor Booker back tonight. Hollis-Jefferson got hurt last night, but seems ready to go. The Nets still have to deal with the absence of Jeremy Lin for the remainder of the season. I have slightly penalized Brooklyn to account for injuries.

As mentioned above, the Nets were playing last night, while Denver got a couple of days of rest. Tonight’s game will mark the Nets’ third road game in a row, whereas the Nuggets will be hosting for the fourth consecutive time (no traveling).

I don’t believe the Nuggets will take this game lightly after getting beaten up 127-108 against the Warriors. They will be looking for an easy win of their own this time.

I like how Denver has faced tough opposition of late (Golden State, Miami and Toronto), which is the complete opposite of Brooklyn whose last three games were against lousy clubs (the Suns twice and the Lakers).

Brooklyn had won six straight games against the Nuggets (all ATS too!), but Denver has won the past two meetings (both straight up and ATS).

The Nets could be looking for payback following a 124-111 home loss versus those same Nuggets nine days ago, but I’m still taking Denver in this one.

Looking to bet the Jazz and the Nuggets tonight? Bovada is a very reliable sportsbook for Americans, currently offering a $250 welcome bonus:


Cheers everyone!

Professor MJ