Free NBA Picks for November 6, 2017 by Professor MJ
FREE NBA PICKS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Good Monday all! With only three games in the NBA tonight, my projected lines are in agreement with two of them, while there is one value play to be had.
PICK: Brooklyn Nets +1.5 at Phoenix Suns (rated 2 stars)
Both of these teams are pretty evenly matched, so with home-court advantage being around 8% you get an estimated win percentage for Phoenix at 58%. I actually came up with a 60% figure because of other factors, including injuries.
However, the schedule gives Brooklyn a HUGE advantage. Not only are they benefiting from two full days of rest, but they also had two more days of rest before their last game.
Meanwhile, the Suns will be playing back-to-back games, also their third game in 4 nights, and fourth in 6 nights. What a big difference! According to this information, I have multiplied the Suns’ estimated win percentage by 76% (following some statistical studies I read about the impact of rest in the NBA based on years of data), which yields a final estimate of 60% * 76% = 45.6%. In terms of point spreads that’s roughly 2 points, so my projections believe the Nets should be 2-point favorites instead of 1.5-point dogs.
Some people believe in it, while others don’t, but there is also a revenge factor. These two teams met six days ago, a game in which the Suns took it 122-114 in Brooklyn. I’m pretty sure the Nets will be looking for payback.
Brooklyn has dropped its past four straight games, including their latest two which occurred against weak teams (the Suns and the Lakers). With tough opponents up next (at Denver, at Portland and at Utah), I’m pretty sure they will give an all-out effort tonight.
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Thanks again for reading, we’ll talk again soon!