Free NBA Picks for May 5, 2017 by Professor MJ

FREE NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Good Friday everyone! I am going to discuss both games that are being played tonight and as you will see, I’ve got a 4-star bet to recommend. I hope to bring some insight that might help you make your decisions from a betting standpoint. Enjoy the read!

 

MAY 5, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Cavaliers

-4,5

-0,1

-181

-101

1,55

1,99

 

-31,1%

Raptors

+4,5

+0,1

+163

+101

2,63

2,01

X

26,3%

Tip: Bet the Raptors.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Spurs

+4,5

+4,3

+173

+177

2,73

2,77

 

-0,7%

Rockets

-4,5

-4,3

-193

-177

1,52

1,56

 

-4,0%

Tip: No value bet.


“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Raptors +4.5 against the Cavaliers. Toronto returns home after suffering two blowout losses in Cleveland. Not much has gone right for the Raptors in this series. On top of that, Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable after sustaining a left ankle injury. He did not practice yesterday and he did not participate in this morning’s shootaround: he will be a game-time decision. I’m not saying the Raptors represent a better team when Lowry is out, but remember they went 14-7 during his absence from February 24th to April 4th. That’s a .667 record which is better than their overall .622 record. My point is it might not be the end of the world. I did penalize the Raptors to account for this potential injury when making my projections (assuming he has a 50-50 chance of playing and that if he does play he won’t be 100%).

In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Toronto also lost the first two games of the series in Cleveland by wide margins (by 31 and 19 points). They rebounded by winning the next two at home, including a 15-point victory in Game 3. The public is betting the Cavaliers like crazy: 86% of the spread bets and 81% of the money line bets are going on Cleveland.

Also, recall my Bounce-Back article: it suggests betting teams that have lost the previous game of the series by 12.5+ points against the spread (ATS) and also to bet teams that have lost the previous two matchups by 4.5+ points ATS. Since the Raptors have lost Game 2 by 15 points ATS and Game 1 by 4.5 points ATS, they qualify for both criteria. I like this pick even more because of all of the above reasons.

 

A quick word about the Spurs-Rockets match. San Antonio beat the spread by 19.5 points in Game 2, so the strategy described in the Bounce-Back article recommends taking the Rockets. I prefer to stay away from that game, as I believe the line is inflated because of the Tony Parker injury. I subtracted 6% to the Spurs’ chances of winning the game (36.1% instead of 42.1%) which I feel is plenty enough. After making such an adjustment, my statistical models project a 4.3-point win by Houston, which is close to the spread and does not warrant betting them. The vast majority is jumping on the Rockets bandwagon right now, so I do not like this. Since I’ve got contradictory information and my projected lines are close to the actual spread, I’m staying away from that game.

Thanks a lot for reading!

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Professor MJ