Free NBA Picks for May 20, 2017 by Professor MJ

FREE NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

This story made me chuckle: a Spurs fan has filed a lawsuit against Zaza Pachulia for the Kawhi Leonard injury. As if it wasn’t ridiculous enough, the fan also went on to ask for a restraining order against the Warriors to prevent them from going to San Antonio. What is more likely to happen: this fan winning his case, or me becoming the next president of the United States? Hard to tell.

MAY 20, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Warriors

-6

-5,6

-234

-219

1,43

1,46

 

-5,1%

Spurs

+6

+5,6

+209

+219

3,09

3,19

 

0,5%

Tip: No value bet.


I’m staying away from this game, but I read an interesting story on Covers.com about the first half line. It goes like this: during the 2017 postseason, teams that have lost the first two games of the series have covered the first-half pointspread 9 times out of 9! The reasoning behind the trend makes sense: the team that is up 2-0 in the series might take its foot off the pedal, hoping to win Game 3 without having to work too hard, whereas the other team plays very desperately. Adjustments are made at halftime, where the team up 2-0 in the series may wake up and realize they will have to put more effort in order to win the game.

That being said, I’m not necessarily advocating betting your house on the Spurs for the first half (even though they do meet the criterion). The main reason is Golden State is a 6-point favorite for the entire game, but the first-half line is Warriors -2. In normal circumstances, they should be favorites by 3 or 3.5 points. Did the general public catch on with this angle? I figured I would let you know about that trend and leave it up to you to make your own decision.

In injury news, Kawhi Leonard is questionable to play Game 3. He basically sat out the entire practice on Thursday. We’ll see how he progresses on Friday (I wrote this report Friday morning), but I don’t believe we’ll get more details until Saturday. Here is how the injury happened:

 

On the Warriors’ side, Zaza Pachulia has a bruised heel and previously had trouble with his right Achilles. Considering he’s enemy number one in San Antonio and Golden State is up 2-0 in the series, it might be wise to sit him out unless he’s 100%. Andre Iguodala is also questionable, but he looks more likely to play after going through practice Thursday.

Let me end this write up by mentioning that 77% of the spread bets have gone on the Warriors.

I’m anxious to see if the Spurs can get back in this series!

Professor MJ