FREE NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

After sweeping Indiana and Toronto, the Cavaliers travel to Boston for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Can LeBron James reach the NBA Finals for a record-high seventh time in a row?

MAY 17, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Cavaliers	-4	-4,1	-180	-169	1,56	1,59		-2,0%
Celtics	+4	+4,1	+162	+169	2,62	2,69		-2,8%
Tip: No value bet.

I’m going to stay away from that game, despite being tempted to bet Cleveland. Over the past 9 playoffs, teams coming off a sweep are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in Game 1 of their next series when facing an opponent that needed seven games to move on. That includes the Warriors not being able to beat the 13-point spread in Game 1 against the Jazz this postseason after winning by 12 points (they were close from doing it, though!). However, a sample size of 11 is small and I’m not convinced the line is still offering value after opening at 3 before jumping to 4 following heavy action on Cleveland (80% of the bets are going their way). But there is no doubt the Cavaliers have flipped the playoff switch.

The season series went 3-1 in favor of Cleveland; their only loss occurred in Boston by a 4-point margin. The Cavs are 5-3-1 ATS against the Celtics over the last 9 matchups.

Have a nice Wednesday!

Professor MJ