Free NBA Picks for May 15, 2017 by Professor MJ

FREE NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Nothing beats a Game 7, especially when the two teams hate each other. This game should be a lot of fun to watch. From a betting perspective, we’ve got a 1-star play:

 

MAY 15, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Wizards

+5

+6,3

+191

+254

2,91

3,54

 

-10,6%

Celtics

-5

-6,3

-213

-254

1,47

1,39

X

5,8%

Tip: Bet the Celtics.


“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Celtics -5 against the Wizards. One of the arguments in favor of Boston is pretty unusual and I don’t think I’ve ever used that kind of justification since posting my picks online several months ago: referees. It could be the X factor. First of all, the league admitted the Celtics should have benefited from an additional second towards the end of the 92-91 loss in Game 6 so they might consciously/unconsciously try to make up for that call. Secondly, the league definitely wants the Celtics to win tonight’s match: bigger market, franchised history, the unfortunate death of Isaiah Thomas’ sister, you name it. I’m not saying the game is rigged, but I would expect Boston to get more favorable calls.

Here are highlights from the final two minutes of Game 6:

The home team has won all 10 meetings in 2016-17. All five home wins by the Celtics against Washington this year were by more than 5 points (though three of them came by a margin lying between 8 and 10 points).

Over the past 9 seasons, the home team is 18-12 against the spread (ATS) in Game 7s, which also suggests taking Boston. However, the team that lost Game 6 ATS is 19-11 ATS in Game 7. Since Washington lost Game 6 ATS (they were favored by 5 but only won by a single point), that points in the Wizards’ direction, so we have conflicting arguments when looking at the above Game 7 numbers. Be aware that are discussing trends with small sample sizes so you may not want to put too much emphasis on them (but still good to know).

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ