Free NBA Picks for April 28, 2017 by Professor MJ

NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

 

Only three first-round series are not over yet in the NBA; Game 6 is presented tonight in each case. Will we get a chance to watch a seventh and decisive game on Sunday? I hope so! I’ve got one value play to recommend today, which is rated 3 stars. Here are the full details:

APRIL 28, 2017

 

SPREAD

MONEY LINE

 

 

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Wizards

+3

+2,1

+137

+121

2,37

2,21

 

4,9%

Hawks

-3

-2,1

-152

-121

1,66

1,83

 

-9,7%

Tip: No value bet.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Celtics

-2,5

-4,3

-137

-176

1,73

1,57

X

15,0%

Bulls

+2,5

+4,3

+124

+176

2,24

2,76

 

-19,9%

Tip: Bet the Celtics.

 

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

Pinnacle

PROF. MJ

PICK

ROI

Clippers

+5,5

+5,4

+219

+229

3,19

3,29

 

-2,0%

Jazz

-5,5

-5,4

-246

-229

1,41

1,44

 

-2,9%

Tip: No value bet.

 


“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Celtics -2.5 in Chicago. Rajon Rondo’s status is clear this time around: he has officially been ruled out of Game 6. After winning the first two games on the road, the Bulls looked in good position to become the sixth #8 seed to upset a #1 seed in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Now, they have their backs against the wall and need a win to force Game 7 at the TD Garden two days from now. Since the 2003 playoffs, teams leading the series 3-2 playing on the road as favorites by at most 5 points (i.e. the spread on the road team was between -0.5 and -5) are 33-18 against the spread (a 65% win percentage). Boston has won the last three games of the series by an average margin of 12.3 points. The only thing I don’t like too much about this play is the fact that 82% of the bets on the spread have gone on Boston thus far. That is not surprising at all: the public may be overreacting to the three straight wins by Boston, combined with the Rondo injury. In other words, the line may be a bit inflated but I am still going to take the Celtics in this one.

Cheers!

Professor MJ