Free MLB Picks Wednesday June 28, 2023
I suggested four picks in Major League Baseball yesterday, and all of them turned out to be winners!
Two of those wins occurred on the free plays I shared with you: the other two were provided to those of you who are members of my bookie crusher tribe via a paid subscription plan at mjpicks.com.
All right, today I’ve got 2 more wagers to present to you. Are you ready for this? Let’s go amigo!
SYSTEM PICK #1: San Francisco Giants (@ +104 odds, at Toronto Blue Jays)
The first pick is backed by “The Big Upset #1” betting strategy. Its rules go like this: suppose a team wins despite their moneyline being greater than +150 in American format, which equates to 2.50 in decimal odds. Then, if they are playing the same opponent the next day, and their moneyline is SMALLER than +125, bet them! The last condition ensures we are not taking big underdogs because this situation led to negative results in the past.
Yesterday, San Francisco did pull off what is viewed as a “big upset” in Toronto since their closing line was around +160. Now, since they are indeed facing the same club again and their moneyline is in fact smaller than +125, then according to “The Big Upset #1” betting angle we are invited to grab the Giants in this matchup.
Before I dig deeper about this game, let me share some details about how this betting system has fared in recent years. Thus far during the 2023 campaign, it has not done well at all: it owns an ugly 1-7 record!
However, look at its positive ROI in prior years: +19% in 2022, +4.1% in 2021 and +6.6% in 2019. We are led to believe that this year’s disappointing performance is simply an outlier and it will eventually go back to its winning habits.
The Giants have won 15 of their past 17 road games, which is super impressive! They are shooting for their 10th straight road win, which would be an accomplishment they haven’t made since 1952.
The Jays present a 1-4 record the last five times they faced a pitcher with a WHIP statistic below 1.15, which is the case of Logan Webb. The latter has not allowed more than four runs in any of his 16 outings this season. I’m taking the Giants here!
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Seattle Mariners -0.5 first 5 innings (@ -152 odds, vs Washington Nationals)
My second official pick for today, Wednesday June 28, is the Seattle Mariners with the first 5 innings run line.
Boy, the pitching matchup could hardly be more in our favor here! Patrick Corbin may have been the worst starting pitcher in the Big Leagues over the past four years. Remember that a WHIP statistic over 1.50 is deemed to be pretty bad. In Corbin’s case, let’s take a look at the value of his WHIP stat from the past four years: 1.57, 1.47, 1.70 and 1.61.
Those numbers are laughable. He has allowed at least two runs in each of his 16 starts this year, which is jaw-dropping!
Meanwhile, the Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert. Here went through a more difficult stretch, but this bad run seems to be behind him because he has posted two solid outings in a row. He gave up two runs to the White Sox before allowing a single run and just two hits on the road in Baltimore! What an impressive performance that was! His 1.02 WHIP stat this year is among the best.
Final decision: Official pick
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