Free MLB Picks Wednesday July 5, 2023
Let me discuss 4 MLB games from a betting perspective for July 5th!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Cleveland Guardians (@ +150 odds, vs Atlanta Braves)
First of all, “The Snapped Winning Streak” betting system is recommending to grab the Cleveland Guardians. In short, this strategy recommends FADING the road team if they lost their last game after winning at least five in a row.
Given that the Braves lost last night after picking up nine consecutive victories, we are invited to bet AGAINST them, which explains the Cleveland pick.
This betting angle has produced 16 bets during the 2023 campaign so far. The average odds have been -108 (i.e. 1.92 in decimal) and we have racked up an 11-5 record with a corresponding +30.6% ROI.
Both teams are starting a pitcher with a high ERA. Michael Soroka owns a 6.89 ERA, while Cal Quantrill’s average sits at 6.18. However, Quantrill was good in 2021 and 2022 with an ERA hovering around 3. Meanwhile, Soroka did not pitch a single inning during those two years. I believe Quantrill will bounce back, and hopefully it all starts today.
Following a loss, the Braves have presented a 15-12 record this year, which is well-below their 67% season winning rate. In other words, they tend to perform a bit more poorly after suffering a defeat.
This bet does not feel comfortable for sure, but I’m taking a shot on this big underdog.
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Los Angeles Angels (@ +150 odds, at San Diego Padres)
The next two picks are backed by “The Hot Bats” system, which suggests to bet against the home team if they have won their past two games by scoring 6+ runs in each of those victories. The Padres are in that situation, so the second system play goes to their opponents, the L.A. Angels.
However, I don’t like this play at all. The odds may seem enticing at first sight, but there is a lot of uncertainty around the Angels. Mike Trout is out. Shohei Ohtani left yesterday’s game with a blister on his right middle finger. Third baseman Anthony Rendon got hurt yesterday as well. 2B Brandon Drury was placed on the injured list a couple of days ago.
Los Angeles has been reeling of late by winning just one of their past seven games. Meanwhile, the Padres are building some momentum after winning a couple of contests in a row.
Patrick Sandoval did a good job in April and May, as evidenced by his 3.16 ERA. But he was abysmal in June with a 7.11 ERA.
Seth Lugo has been going in the opposite direction. Since coming back from an injury, he has racked up 15 strikeouts versus 1 walk, while providing a great 2.25 ERA.
Final decision: Avoid
SYSTEM PICK #3: New York Yankees (@ +105 odds, vs Baltimore Orioles)
The Baltimore Orioles are also supported by “The Hot Bats” system. After digging deeper, I’m going to do something I rarely do: I am going to bet AGAINST the system. I am officially taking the Yankees as slight underdogs in this AL East showdown.
Dean Kremer has started seven games in his career against New York. In those games, he presented a 1-3 record, coupled with a 5.61 ERA.
Randy Vasquez has been a mystery. He wasn’t good in Triple-A with a 5.11 ERA, but surprisingly enough he has fared well in the Big Leagues! Indeed, he has surrendered just two runs to the Padres and no run against the White Sox.
New York’s offense has been firing on all cylinders. In fact, they have put an average of 6.6 runs on the board during the team’s past seven matches.
The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Baltimore is 1-6 in their past 7. These clubs are clearly headed in different directions!
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #4: New York Mets (@ +101 odds, at Arizona Diamondbacks)
I also have a lean on the New York Mets today. Kodai Senga was originally slated to start on Tuesday, but he was given an extra day off, which will be beneficial to him.
Both Senga and his counterpart, Tommy Henry, have an identical 1.35 WHIP stat, which is close to the league average. But Senga has done better since the beginning of May, and he has a high strikeout rate.
During the past 27 meetings between these two teams, the Mets have won 20 while the DBacks have won just 7.
Final decision: Lean
Enjoy your day and I truly hope it will be a lucrative one for you, my friend!!!