Free MLB Picks Wednesday August 9, 2023
My MLB betting systems are pointing in the direction of 4 different teams today. Only 3 of them are worth betting, in my humble opinion. Let me share those wagers with you!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Detroit Tigers (@ +144 odds, vs Minnesota Twins)
My first official pick is swinging for the fences with a big underdog: I am taking the Detroit Tigers at home against the Twins.
This pick is backed by a solid betting strategy called “The Snapped Winning Streak”. Its rules are: bet AGAINST the road team if they lost their previous game after winning at least five in a row.
In this case, Minnesota rode a five-game winning streak that got halted last night. Since they are indeed the visiting team today, we’ve got to fade them.
This system has generated a 16-9 record this season at average odds of -108. The corresponding ROI is +20.9%. How good is that?
Bailey Ober has good season-long numbers, but over the past four games he has posted a disappointing 5.57 ERA (despite allowing no walks in any of those outings!). In five career starts against Detroit, he holds a 5.40 ERA.
The Twins are likely to be without a key piece of their lineup as Donovan Solano got hurt after an awkward slide. He injured his knee and/or ankle in the process.
Alex Faedo was recalled from Triple-A in order to start for the Tigers. His 5.80 ERA is uninspiring, but he has collected a surprisingly good 1.04 WHIP stat (while the league average is 1.30), wow!
I think it’s worth taking a shot at such big +144 odds.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Houston Astros (@ +110 odds, at Baltimore Orioles)
Let’s go for another underdog, shall we? I am betting the Houston Astros who qualify under “The Comeback” betting angle. It has yielded a +2% ROI this year (which isn’t exceptional, but still in the black!) after sitting at a lofty +16% last year. Details of this winning MLB system can be found on my main YouTube channel.
Cristian Javier is having the worst of his 4 MLB seasons, but I believe he can rebound and enjoy a nice second portion to the regular season. After going through a rough stretch in June, he has fared much better in July. Let’s see how he does in a tough environment in Baltimore.
Jack Flaherty did well in his Orioles debut against the Jays! His 1.52 WHIP stat this year indicates the success may not last.
Again, let me take a shot on this underdog, this time at odds around +110.
SYSTEM PICK #3: San Diego Padres (@ -125 odds, at Seattle Mariners)
Finally, I like the San Diego Padres to end Seattle’s six-game winning streak.
We are getting some very reasonable odds with a steady and reliable pitcher (Yu Darvish) against a guy making his MLB debut (Emerson Hancock). I like the sound of that!
In Triple-A at Arkansas, Hancock has obtained a 4.99 ERA. It does not bode well for him tonight against a San Diego team that can put some runs on the board.
Darvish is having a disappointing season. Now aged 36, is he declining? Maybe, but I think he still has gas in the tank. Since the All-Star break, he has produced 4 solid outings out of 5. Let’s go with San Diego here!
I’m Professor MJ, it has been a pleasure to present those picks to you! I hope to give you more value tomorrow!