Free MLB Picks Wednesday August 23, 2023
I’ve got a couple of MLB picks to present to you for Wednesday August 23rd. Let’s review each one right away!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Milwaukee Brewers (@ -128 odds, vs Minnesota Twins)
First of all, I am taking the Milwaukee Brewers at home against the Minnesota Twins. Corbin Burnes is probably the starting pitcher I have backed the most often this season. He tossed a gem in his last outing, as he allowed just two hits in seven innings against the high-powered Dodgers offense. Unfortunately, he got no run support so he had to settle for a no-decision in a 1-0 defeat. Over his past nine outings, Burnes has presented a superb 4-1 record, along with a 2.34 ERA.
Since August 9, the Brewers hold an 8-3 record. All three losses occurred at Dodger Stadium, so we’re talking about some very difficult games. Meanwhile, the Twins have been shaky of late. In fact, they are 11-13 since July 25.
Minnesota has looked like a different team whether they play on the road or at home. They are 29-35 as the visiting team compared to 36-26 in front of their home crowd.
Kenta Maeda is enjoying a solid 2023 season. Hats off to him! He had allowed either 1 or 2 run(s) in five straight starts before posting some very mediocre numbers in his last appearance at home against the lowly Tigers. Indeed, in four innings pitched, he allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. He could be on the verge of a more difficult stretch, so I’m putting my money on the Brewers to extend their four-game winning streak to five!
SYSTEM PICK #2: Miami Marlins (@ +108 odds, at San Diego Padres)
Up next, after fading them last night I am betting the Miami Marlins at Petco Park in San Diego. Yesterday’s win pulled the Marlins within one game of the final National League wildcard position. They seem ultra motivated to grab that last postseason spot, while the Padres have been sinking fast. They just can’t seem to be building some momentum. They have slim playoff hopes after winning just 5 of their past 16 games.
Miami’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, seems to have recaptured his 2022 form. During his past five starts, he has racked up a 3-1 record coupled with a 2.13 ERA. He picked up the W against the Dodgers, the Yankees and the Rays, which is quite impressive. His only defeat occurred at the Texas Rangers, which was a tough game for sure.
Alcantara also has the revenge factor going his way. On May 30, the Padres scored four runs against him in a bit over six innings pitched. He will be looking for some payback today.
The Marlins pick is also supported by “The Big Upset #1” betting strategy that goes like this: bet any team that pulled off a big upset in its last game (i.e. winning with a moneyline above +150) if they are facing the same opponent and if their moneyline today is smaller than +125. Miami fits under each of those three criteria, so we have a qualifying system play here.
The performance of this betting angle has been quite puzzling. After posting some gains in three straight years, it has produced a super disappointing 3-13 record thus far in 2023. That’s a source of concern for sure, but I prefer to rely on three years of data rather than just this year, which could simply be an outlier.
BONUS (LEAN): Washington Nationals (@ +120 odds, at New York Yankees)
As a bonus, let me mention the fact that the Washington Nationals also qualify under “The Big Upset #1” system today. After analyzing this matchup further, I will only grade it as a lean, though. I know the Nationals have been playing great baseball of late (a 22-14 record since the All-Star break), while the Yankees have dropped their past nine contests, but I’m still wary of this bet. Luis Severino has been awful this year, but he showed some signs of progress with 27 called or swinging strikes in his last outing. Plus he can’t be awful in each outing, can he? I prefer to err on the side of caution, so I’ll be staying on the sidelines with this system play.
Enjoy your Wednesday my good betting friends!