Free MLB Picks Wednesday August 16, 2023

I’ve got 3 MLB betting picks for you today, Wednesday August 16. Let’s get started right away!


SYSTEM PICK #1: Under 9.5 Red Sox-Nationals (@ -120 odds)

The last 6 Red Sox games have gone under the total. As far as Washington is concerned, the under has posted a 13-5 record lately.

According to, the following system has generated an awesome ROI over many years: taking the under when the total is at least 8, and both starters have a “high” strikeout rate (i.e. more than one K per inning, on average). This strategy has produced an 18-3 record during its past 21 wagers!

James Paxton is enjoying a great season after missing most of the 2020, 2021 and 2022 seasons. His 3.36 ERA and 1.15 WHIP stat are rock-solid. He hasn’t had many bad games. In fact, he has surrendered more than three runs in just 3 of his 15 starts.

The Nationals will counter with Mackenzie Gore, The young 24-year-old has had some ups and downs this year. After three straight good outings, he was hit hard in Philly. I think he can rebound today.


SYSTEM PICK #2: Arizona Diamondbacks (@ -125 odds, at Colorado Rockies)

The second pick goes to the Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline in Colorado. Are the DBacks finally turning the corner? After going through an ugly 3-17 stretch, they have won three of their past four games. That’s a small sample, but I’ll take a shot against the third-worst MLB team, the Rockies.

Colorado is headed in the opposite direction. As a matter of fact, after winning 5 of 7 games in mid-July, they have gone 6-14 since then.

Rookie Slade Cecconi is set to start for Arizona. He has done a fine job in two appearances so far: 2 runs and 5 hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Austin Gomber has done better of late by allowing 0-2 runs in four outings in a row, but I don’t trust this guy. His WHIP stat has increased in each of his past 3 seasons by going from 1.17 to 1.24 to 1.37 to 1.46.


SYSTEM PICK #3: Under 9 Pirates-Mets (@ -120 odds)

Finally, my third pick for today is under 9 runs in the Pirates-Mets meeting. Right now, only 33% of bets on the total have gone on the under, but 83% of the total amount invested has gone on the under. This shows how smart money is backing a low-scoring game.

Johan Oviedo was great after the All-Star break until he hit a all against Cincinnati. He had allowed 0 or 1 run in four of five starts before giving up six runs to the Reds. I think he can bounce back.

Tylor Megill is hard to trust with his abysmal 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP stat (!!!). He has struggled mightily in his past three outings, but he faced some tough opposition: the Braves, the Orioles and the Astros (who rank 1st, 6th and 7th in runs scored). The Pirates are much softer by occupying spot #24 in terms of offense.

The revenge factor also comes into play here. Megill got hammered in Pittsburgh on June 9, as he squandered 9 runs in less than four innings. He will be motivated to get some payback.


I invite you to signup for my FREE NFL “Smart Betting” challenge, where I’m going to reveal all of my secret NFL betting strategies. The challenge will run from Monday to Friday next week (from noon to 1 pm Eastern Time each day, but you can watch the replay if you miss the live session).

I hope you join the numerous other smart sports bettors who have already began to register since yesterday! The link to participate in that free live online event is here!