Free MLB Picks Tuesday September 26, 2023
Today I would like to present 2 potential MLB wagers with you.
Let's dive into it right away!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Tampa Bay Rays (@ -125 odds, at Boston Red Sox)
Pick number one in Major League Baseball for Tuesday September 26th is the Tampa Bay Rays full game moneyline on the road at Fenway Park. This prediction is NOT supported by any of my 19 betting systems; it is the result of my own analysis of the game, and my statistical model also agrees with the play.
Indeed, according to my numbers, the Rays hold a 58.7% chance of winning this match. In terms of odds, the fair moneyline would therefore bet -142 in American format, or 1.70 if you are more familiar with decimal odds. Those are the lowest acceptable odds that you should consider taking. At 9 am Eastern Time, I was able to grab -125 odds with BetMGM, or bwin, or Borgota or Party Poker, so this was a no brainer to me.
The pitching duel is quite enticing to me as well. I have a lot of faith in Zach Eflin, who has shined in his first year in Tampa after spending the first seven seasons with the Phillies. His 1.03 WHIP statistic is simply spectacular, and he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his past six outings.
On the other side, Tanner Houck will take the mound for the Red Sox. An average WHIP stat is 1.30, while Houck’s figure stands at 1.35. That means he is slightly worse than average. He has shown command issues in his past couple of outings, as evidenced by the 4 and 3 walks he has given up in those games.
I can’t say I’m overly confident about this play though. Personally, I placed a bet of size that is smaller than my typical wager.
First, I’m a bit worried about the growing injury list on Tampa’s side. Also, even though Eflin racked up 21 punchouts in 14 innings against the Red Sox this season, he still recorded a very high 6.43 ERA in those three starts.
However, Houck has not fared any better against his opponents for today. In fact, in two career starts against the Rays, he has posted a 6.30 ERA. After this quick break, let me present another potential baseball wager for today.
LEAN: Detroit Tigers (@ -159 odds, vs Kansas City Royals)
I also have a lean on the Detroit Tigers, who will be hosting the red hot Kansas City Royals. Notice that I said it is a lean, which means it is an unofficial pick. Let me explain why.
The Tigers caught my attention because they qualify under “The Hot Teams Matchup #2” betting system. It suggests taking the home team if they are coming off either 1 or 2 wins when facing a visiting team that has won at least four games in a row. In this case, the Royals are riding a six-game winning streak, while Detroit is coming off a single win.
However, I have decided not to make it an official pick for one reason: the low odds. At the time I made this post, the most advantageous line was -159 in American format, or 1.63 in decimal. I don’t feel super comfortable betting the Tigers at such low odds.
The rookie Reese Olson has performed admirably well. Can you believe that he has surrendered 2 runs or fewer in each of his past five starts? And that was despite facing the Dodgers and the Yankees during this hot run. Still, he is a rookie who is susceptible to bad outings once in a while.
Zack Greinke has been on a pitch count lately as he hasn’t gone deeper than 5 innings in any of his past seven starts. In 34 career appearances against the Tigers, he holds an impressive 2.84 ERA. That’t not reassuring if you are planning to bet Detroit.
So, if forced to bet I’d go with the Tigers, but I’m not convinced there is much value in such a low line.
With the MLB season coming to an end this upcoming Sunday, we only have one live stream left. Most of the time, I have done it on Wednesdays, but this week it will take place on Thursday. The start time will be 11 am Eastern Time, as usual. I hope you can make it!
When you want to place several bets on a given day, should you bet them separately or all into the same parlay bet? I have made a video addressing this question, and the answer is loud and clear. I invite you to watch this video that might save you hundreds of dollars during your betting career!