Free MLB Picks Tuesday May 30, 2023
Do you want to get 4 MLB system picks for today, Tuesday May 30th? You have come to the perfect place for that!
Yesterday we won both of our plays: the Rangers in Detroit, and the Twins who pulled off the upset in Houston. They almost blew a four-run lead, but were able to get the W in extra innings against the Astros. Good job, guys!
If you have been following my daily baseball picks, you know that my betting strategies rarely end up taking big favorites. However, strangely enough, they are pointing in the direction of 3 big favorites today.
SYSTEM PICK #1: Tampa Bay Rays (@ -190 odds, at Chicago Cubs)
First, we have two different teams who fit under “The Snapped Losing Streak #2” betting system.
So far this year this betting angle has suggested to bet 10 teams whose average odds were 2.04 in decimal, which corresponds to +104 in American format. And despite such positive odds, we have racked up a 7-3 record. In recent seasons, this system has also performed very well, so we gotta pay attention to it very carefully.
Would you like to understand how this moneymaking strategy works? All right, let me explain.
Suppose the home team won its previous game after losing at least four in a row. If their moneyline today is better than -200 in American format, or 1.50 in decimal, and they are facing the same opponent as yesterday, we must bet AGAINST the home team in question.
For example, let’s focus on the Chicago Cubs:
They are indeed at home today, they lost four straight games before snapping this cold streak last night, their moneyline today is much better than -200, and they are in fact facing the same opponent as yesterday, the Rays. Since the Cubs meet all criteria for betting, we must FADE them and for that reason today’s system pick number one goes to the Tampa Bay Rays.
That being said, I am definitely rating it as an official pick. You know how much I love and trust Shane McClanahan. It is mind-boggling to me how he has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts. His only “bad” outing was at Yankee Stadium, which is a tough environment against a strong offense.
Moreover, the last four times the Rays lost a game, they came back with a victory. Also, they present a solid 31-14 record in their past 45 games against a right-handed pitcher.
They will be facing Kyle Hendricks, who struggled in his season debut. In fact, he gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Mets. Hendricks was a much better than average pitcher from 2014 until 2020, but during the past two seasons he finished with “okay” numbers. I would grade him as a middle-of-the-pack starter, and now he is clearly not in top form after coming back from a shoulder strain. Give me the Rays in this matchup
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Atlanta Braves (@ -239 odds, at Oakland A's)
What is the second system pick for today? Remember how I mentioned earlier that a second team qualifies under “The Snapped Losing Streak #2” system. Oakland is at home, they won their past match after losing 11 consecutive games, their moneyline today is much higher than -200 in American format, and they are facing the same opponent as yesterday, the Braves.
For this reason, we must FADE the A’s, which explains why today’s second system pick goes to the Atlanta Braves.
This time, I prefer to err on the side of caution and rate it as an unofficial pick, also called a “lean”.
The main reason is J.P. Sears, a pitcher who is on the rise, in my opinion. The public gets blinded by his pedestrian 4.70 ERA, but his 1.10 WHIP statistic is outstanding. There has not been much traffic on the bases when he has been on the mound. He has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past three outings.
I’m not saying the A’s will win this game, but I am not willing to bet at such low odds with a higher level of risk. That’s just my personal decision though.
Final decision: Lean
SYSTEM PICK #3: Los Angeles Dodgers (@ -295 odds, vs Washington Nationals)
I hope you are sitting on a chair right now, otherwise you might fall on your butt after hearing the following numbers.
“The Scoring Drought” betting system is the only one I have developed that keeps betting big favorites. Even though I am a contrarian, I trust it due to his amazing past performance.
This year has been no different. As you can see above, this betting angle has generated 18 bets during the 2023 campaign, and those plays have produced a jaw-dropping 15-3 record, including winning the past 12 wagers!
The rules of this lucrative strategy go like this: suppose the road team lost its past two games by scoring either 0, 1 or 2 runs in those defeats. If their moneyline today is higher than +150 in American format, then FADE them.
In the current case, the Washington Nationals are indeed on the road, their moneyline is much higher than +150, and they have lost their past two contests by scoring 2 and 1 run respectively.
According to the rules, we must bet against them, which is why today’s third system pick in Major League Baseball is the L.A. Dodgers.
They hold a 37-17 record the last 54 times they hosted the Nationals. Moreover, the last 52 times the Dodgers played at home against a right-handed pitcher, they have racked up a 39-13 record.
The pitching matchup is almost unfair. Jake Irvin will be making his 6th career start, while Tony Gonsolin is a true beast. The revenge factor also comes into play because Gonsolin’s only loss last year occurred against those same Nationals. Payback time!
Despite the very low odds, I’ve got to make this one an official pick. I know those types of picks are not exciting for some readers and that I might get some criticism, but I’m just following what my betting systems are recommending, and they usually do not pick big favorites on a regular basis. It just happens to be the case today.
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #4: San Francisco Giants (@ -142 odds, vs Pittsburgh Pirates)
System pick number 4 goes to the San Francisco Giants, who qualify under “The Blowout #1” system. I’m not sure I like this play, honestly. The Pirates will send Johan Oviedo to the mound. He went through a tough stretch, but he has fared much better lately with 5 runs allowed in his past 17 innings.
Meanwhile, the Giants will counter with John Brebbia who has done a great job, but the primary pitcher is likely to be Sean Manaea, whose numbers are awful this year.
The Giants play good baseball at home though, while Pittsburgh holds a 6-19 record during their last 25 games. Again, let me rate it as a “lean” because I don’t feel comfortable enough to actually bet it, personally.
Final decision: Lean
All right, so we have 2 official picks and 2 leans for today. Let’s hope we will have some underdogs to bet tomorrow during my live stream, which is set to begin at 11 am Eastern Time as usual. I hope to see you there so that we can interact via the chat.