Free MLB Picks Tuesday May 23, 2023

The MLB picks have been running cold lately, after enjoying a very lucrative start to the 2023 baseball season.

In this post, I want to share 5 MLB system picks with you, and for each of them I will reveal how much I like or dislike the betting tip in question.

Yesterday, my lone official pick was Milwaukee who got clobbered by a 10-run margin. What an awful pick that was.

I also had a couple of leans, who both won.

It seems to me like over the past week or so, the official picks have done poorly, while the unofficial picks (the "leans") have performed very well. So maybe we should pay more attention to my leans? Let’s monitor the situation.


SYSTEM PICK #1: St. Louis Cardinals (@ -135 odds, at Cincinnati Reds)

The first system pick in Major League Baseball for today is backed by a betting system called “The Snapped Losing Streak #2”.

The rules are as follows: suppose the home team won its previous game after losing at least four in a row. If they are facing the same opponent today, and their moneyline is better than -200 in American format, then you should bet AGAINST them.

Let’s focus on the Cincinnati Reds for a minute. They lost four straight games before snapping that losing skid via a 6-5 victory over the Cardinals last night. Since they are indeed facing the same St. Louis team, and the Cincy’s moneyline is much higher than -200, then according to the rules we must FADE the Reds, and therefore the first system pick for May 23rd goes to the Cardinals.

Do I view this potential wager as an official pick, a lean, or a play to avoid? The short answer: I would tend to avoid it.

I know the Cards have done a great job recently with an 11-4 record during their past 15 matches, but I simply have trouble trusting Adam Wainwright right now. He is 41 years old and in less than 16 innings pitched he has obtained just 8 strikeouts versus 5 walks. All three of his starts were either bad, or ordinary.

Meanwhile, Graham Ashcraft has been reeling after a hot start to the 2023 campaign, but I trust the young 25-year-old hurler more than Wainwright to come up with a good bounce back performance. Also, the Reds have been playing much better at home than on the road.

Final decision: Avoid


SYSTEM PICK #2: Baltimore Orioles (@ +119 odds, at New York Yankees)


System pick #2 goes to the Baltimore Orioles due to “The Hot Teams Matchup #1” betting angle. It basically recommends backing the road team if they have won at least one game in a row when facing a home squad that’s riding a winning streak of length at least four. In this case, Baltimore has picked up the victory in three straight contests, while the Yankees have won their past four.

Other than a rough outing against the Red Sox, Kyle Bradish has been very solid this season, as evidenced by his 2.10 ERA in his six other starts. Gerrit Cole is enjoying yet another great year so far. After allowing four homeruns in two starts, he came back strong by blanking the Jays in six innings six days ago.

I know the Orioles have not had much success at Yankee Stadium in recent years, but at +153 odds with BetOnline and Pinnacle it is quite tempting to take a shot. My final decision, even though it is a risky one, is to make it an official betting play for today.


Final decision: Avoid


SYSTEM PICK #3: Seattle Mariners (@ -240 odds, vs Oakland A's)

The third baseball system pick is supported by “The Comeback” betting angle, which is quite interesting. In short, it suggests betting a team that pulled off a nice comeback in their previous game. More specifically, that team must have won after trailing by at least four runs, they must be facing the same opponent, and they must not be big favorites, otherwise the system has not performed very well in those cases.

Yesterday, the Dodgers dug themselves into an 0-4 hole in the first inning, but they stormed back for an 8-to-6 victory in Atlanta. Since they are playing the Braves again, and L.A. is clearly not a big favorite today, then the third system play for May 23rd goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers to pull off a big upset in Atlanta.

That is obviously a scary bet given the pitching duel. L.A. will send Bobby Miller to make his MLB debut in a tough situation against Spencer Strider.

The latter has shown some signs of weaknesses lately by allowing 4 runs twice in his past four outings, but he remains a super reliable option on the mound. Miller is a top prospect, but his numbers in Triple-A this year have been far from impressive. Indeed, he owns a 5.65 ERA.

I don’t feel great about this bet, but you won’t get the Dodgers at +179 odds very often during the course of the season.

Final decision: Lean


SYSTEM PICK #4: Seattle Mariners (@ -240 odds, vs Oakland A's)

Just like yesterday, my MLB betting systems are pointing in the direction of the Seattle Mariners. Their moneyline of around -225 makes it less enticing, but betting against the Oakland A’s has been the right decision very often this year. They are such a bad team that it almost feels like free money.

This time, we have 2 betting strategies backing Seattle simultaneously: “The Scoring Drought”, and also “The Blowout #1”. Rookie Luis Medina owns an ugly 6.88 ERA, but don’t be misled by those numbers because his 1.24 WHIP statistic makes him a better-than-average pitcher so far. There hasn’t been that many runners on the bases, but his big problem has been allowing five homeruns in 17 innings.

Meanwhile, the Mariners will send Marco Gonzales to the mound. He got pounded for eight earned runs in Boston in his last time out. All of his numbers are quite bad this season. Again, let’s grade it as an unofficial pick, also called a “lean”.

Final decision: Lean


SYSTEM PICK #5: Seattle Mariners (@ -240 odds, vs Oakland A's)

System pick #5 is the result of “The Blowout #1” strategy; it suggests putting money on the Houston Astros since they dismantled the Brewers last night.

J.P. France started his MLB career very well by allowing a total of one run in his first two starts combined. However, he got shelled by the Cubs in his last outing. Which version of him are we going to see today?

The Brewers will counter with Colin Rea, who is a mediocre starter. In other words, both pitchers are susceptible to having a bad game. But the Astros are playing with a much higher confidence level after winning 11 of their past 12 games. When scoring 4+ runs in a game, Houston owns a 24-5 record. That seems like a real possibility given the starting pitcher they are facing today.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee got off to a great start to the season with an 18-9 record, but they have gone 7-13 since then. Give me the Astros as my second official betting pick in Major League Baseball for today, Tuesday May 23rd.

Final decision: Lean

Let’s recap quickly: my official picks are the Orioles as big underdog in New York, as well as the Astros as slight favorites in Milwaukee. I also have a lean on the Dodgers and the Mariners, while I decided to stay away from the Cardinals. As always, you can tail those plays at your own risk, especially given our recent cold streak. I have no doubt we will eventually go back to our usual winning ways, but for now things have not gone super well. I’m always doing my very best to provide you with solid picks, but things cannot run smoothly all the time, unfortunately and I apologize for that. I’m Professor MJ thanking you very much for watching this video, cheers my friend!