Free MLB Picks Tuesday July 4, 2023
We won both MLB picks yesterday, so it’s time to celebrate once again my betting friends!
Despite the big slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball today, my betting systems are only suggesting to bet one team, which is quite shocking!
Before I reveal this betting play, I must mention that we have conflicting information regarding the Cubs versus Brewers game. Indeed, “The Hot Bats” betting strategy is suggesting to bet Chicago, while “The Comeback” system points in the direction of Milwaukee.
I am not going to make a pick on this game, but if forced to bet I would go with the Brew Crew. The first reason is the fact that the latter system has performed much better.
Also, the Cubs have won just 5 of their past 17 games at American Family Field. They have also presented a 2-9 record on the road when facing a team with a winning record as of late.
Personally, I am going to stay away from this game, but I have to admit I’m tempted by this bet. It’s up to you to make your own betting decisions, I’m just sharing some information with you here!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Tampa Bay Rays (@ -135 odds, vs Philadelphia Phillies)
That being said, my top pick for today (happy 4th of July to my American friends!!!) is the Tampa Bay Rays at home against Philadelphia.
One guy is certainly excited about this game because he will be facing his former team: Zach Eflin. He spent his whole career with the Phillies.
It’s interesting to take a look at the variation of his WHIP statistic during those years. Remember that this is the stat I trust the most for starting pitchers, as it measures well how much traffic there has been on the bases while being on the mound. The league average is 1.30, and Eflin’s WHIP stat stood around 1.25 to 1.30 in each of his first five years in the Big Leagues. Then, last year, it dropped to 1.12, which was outstanding! He is doing even better this season with a 1.03 figure.
Eflin will be facing Aaron Nola, who is not bad either! Unfortunately for the Phillies, he is not dominating nearly as much as he did last year. His WHIP stat is still pretty good, but a 4.51 ERA is certainly disappointing for him. Nola has allowed at least four runs in 7 of hist past 11 starts, which is not good at all.
Did you know that the Phillies have lost each of their past five meetings in Tampa Bay?
A few betting trends are a source of concern, though: Philly won its last seven games on the road against right-handed pitchers. During their past 12 road games overall, they have posted a jaw-dropping 11-1 record, can you believe that? However, it is reassuring to learn that the Phillies have lost each of their past seven games on astroturf.
Which of my 19 betting systems recommends betting the Rays? The one called “The Big Upset #2”, which goes like this:
Suppose the victim of a “big upset” in its last game is now established as the underdog while facing a different opponent. In that case, you must FADE the team in question.
In their last game, Philadelphia lost to the Nationals even though Washington’s moneyline was huge.
In case you are wondering, the definition of a “big” upset is winning despite the moneyline being above +150. Since Philly is indeed the underdog today while playing against a different opponent, then according to the rules we must bet AGAINST the Phillies.
Would you like to know the performance of this betting strategy this year? A great 6-1 record! That’s right, we have had just 7 teams qualifying under this system this season, so let’s take advantage of it today.
I’ll have more MLB picks for you tomorrow, and the best way to ensure you won’t miss any of my baseball picks this season is by subscribing to my YouTube channel and clicking the little bell to get an alert as soon as I release new betting tips just for you!