Free MLB Picks Tuesday July 25, 2023
I’ve got a couple of solid betting picks for you today in Major League Baseball.
But first, we stayed hot yesterday by winning the top MLB pick of the day, which was under 4.5 runs to be scored in the first five innings of the Mariners versus Twins meeting.
Since only three runs were scored through the first half of the game, we cashed our ticket!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Milwaukee Brewers (@ -146 odds, vs Cincinnati Reds)
Pick number one for Tuesday July 25th goes to the Milwaukee Brewers full game moneyline, who will be trying to extend their lead atop the NL Central division to 2.5 games over the Cincinnati Reds.
The most advantageous lines at the time I made this post were between -145 and -150 in American format, which corresponds to a 1.67 to 1.69 range in decimal odds.
This pick is backed by a moneymaking betting strategy called “The Snapped Winning Streak.” I really love this betting angle that has generated a hefty profit over a long period of time.
So far this season there have been 22 teams qualifying under its rules. Those teams had average odds of -106, which means we needed a 51.5% winning rate to break even. But we have crushed this threshold by picking up an awesome 14-8 record, which translated into a +21.4% ROI.
Do you remember what its rules are? Let me help you out. Whenever the road team lost its previous game after winning at least five in a row, you must bet AGAINST them. In other words, we are banking on the fact that the visiting team may have lost its confidence after seeing a long winning streak get broken.
In the current case, the Reds are indeed on the road, and they lost 3-2 last night after racking up five consecutive victories. So, by following The Snapped Winning Streak’s rules, we’ve got to fade Cincinnati, which explains the Brewers pick.
We also happen to be backing a guy I’ve supported often this year, Corbin Burnes. He had a run of three starts where he did not perform up to expectations, but he’s been very reliable in his past four outings. In fact, during this hot run he holds a perfect 4-0 record, along with just four earned runs in 27 innings, which equates to a 1.33 ERA.
The Reds have had trouble against Burnes this year because Milwaukee’s starter obtained a 2.50 ERA against his divisional opponent.
Meanwhile, the Reds are set to start rookie Andrew Abbott, who’s been spectacular in his first year as a pro! In nine starts, he presents a 2.10 ERA, along with a jaw-dropping WHIP stat that is below 1.
Abbott has a 5-2 record this season, but it is interesting to note that both of his losses occurred against the Brewers. I have a strong feeling he will lose a third game against Milwaukee tonight. He is much less experienced than Burnes, and the nerves might get to him in such a key game on the road.
I mentioned earlier how Cincinnati’s confidence could be shaken if you consider “The Snapped Winning Streak” betting system. But you should also know that the Reds are 2-9 against Milwaukee in 11 meetings this season. That won’t help restore their confidence, so that’s another reason why I have placed a solid bet on the Brewers today!
SYSTEM PICK #2: Tyler Glasnow under 8.5 strikeouts (@ -110 odds)
Earlier this morning I also took a stab on Tyler Glasnow from the Tampa Bay Rays to record under 8.5 strikeouts. Suppose you would have made that bet in each of Glasnow’s 10 starts this season. Your betting record would be 7-3 so far this year.
I am aware that he is a strikeout machine. In fact, he ranks second in the Big Leagues with his 35.1% strikeout rate. But racking up 9 or more punchouts in a game is not an easy task.
Also, you may be tempted to think that the Marlins are an easy prey for Glasnow since Miami has scored the fourth-fewest runs in the Majors this year. But, surprisingly enough, they have struck out the seventh-fewest number of times in the league!
Here is one more element that might make you like this pick a bit more. Glasnow is coming off his longest outing of the year after throwing seven innings against the Orioles. And that was after staying on the mound for six innings in Kansas City. In other words, he’s just had his two longest starts of the year, so fatigue might come into play here. I’m not sure he will have his best stuff for tonight’s match against the Marlins.
A quick reminder that the free picks posted here only represent a portion of all the good value wagers that I share on mjpicks.com for a meager $3.50 per day. If you are ready to invest in yourself, come and join our numerous other savvy sports bettors on mjpicks.com, cheers my friend!