Free MLB Picks Tuesday August 29, 2023
« The Scoring Drought » MLB betting system has now produced a 33-2 record over its past 35 wagers. Over the whole season, the return on investment from this betting strategy is +30.2%.
The good news is we have another qualifying play for today under this system!
Those of you who are regular viewers and who are familiar with The Scoring Drought’s rules can probably guess which team it is. Recall how it works: bet AGAINST the road team if their moneyline is greater than +150 and if they have lost their past two games by scoring two runs or fewer in each of those defeats!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Seattle Mariners (@ -275 odds, vs Oakland A's)
If you take a look at Oakland’s schedule, they are indeed the visiting team today. They also suffered a couple of consecutive losses and in both cases they could not manufacture more than two runs on offense. In fact, they scored 1 and 0 run in those recent losses.
So, for this reason, my top MLB pick for today, Tuesday August 29, is the Seattle Mariners at home against the A’s. The main criticism I get when presenting such picks is that the odds are low, which is not super exciting. I fully understand the reaction, but a 30% ROI is a 30% ROI. Personally, I am not going to ignore that.
Here is an analogy to help you understand the value of this bet. Suppose someone was offering you the opportunity to bet on the outcome of the roll of a dice. The conditions you are getting are as follows:
- You lose if it lands on 1
- You win if it lands on 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.
The guy gives you -300 odds on the bet.
Should you do it? OF COURSE!
A bet at -300 odds is profitable as long as your winning percentage is at least 75%. In this case, your success rate is 5 out 6, which equals 83.3%.
If you decide to risk $300 for a potential net win of $100, then you have an 83.3% chance of ending up 100-dollar richer, and you hold a 16.7% probability of losing 300 bucks. If you do the math, this bet holds an 11.1% ROI.
In the case of “The Scoring Drought”, we have racked up close to three times that ROI: a 30.2% figure!
Unlike yesterday, I have decided to play it safe and I grabbed the moneyline rather than the run line at more favorable odds. I know some people prefer to do this, and I respect your opinion. That is just my personal choice for today.
I’m Professor MJ, thanks for watching amigo!