Free MLB Picks Thursday May 25, 2023
This article will present 3 MLB picks that are backed by one of my 19 baseball betting strategies.
Yesterday's official picks that I shared with you generated a 2-2 record, while the lean was a winner.
Let’s build some momentum and make some money together today, May 25th!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Miami Marlins (@ -115 odds, at Colorado Rockies)
The first system pick in Major League Baseball goes to the Miami Marlins playing at Coors Field in Colorado.
The pick in question is supported by “The Blowout #1” system that has proven to show long-term profit when backing teams coming off a blowout win by a margin of at least eight runs, if they are facing the same opponent today.
In this case, Miami destroyed the Rockies 10-to-2 last night, which means they indeed won by a margin of at least eight runs. Since the Marlins are facing those same Rockies again today, we must put our money on Miami, according to this betting angle.
Now, do I grade it as an official pick, a lean or a play to avoid? The answer is: I like it enough to make it an official betting play for today!
Braxton Garrett will take the mound for the Marlins. I feel like this guy is underrated.
His numbers look quite ordinary on the surface, but if you toss out an 11-run nightmare against the Braves, he owns a 2.56 ERA, along with a great 1.09 WHIP statistics. As a matter of fact, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his 9 starts this year. That’s excellent!
Garrett will face Kyle Freeland, a pitcher that I have backed on a few occasions this season. He has had his ups and downs, but overall he has done a fine job. This is not necessarily a top-notch bet, but I am grading it an official bet nonetheless. Go Marlins!
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Baltimore Orioles (@ +119 odds, at New York Yankees)
The second system pick for today is backed by “The Comeback” system. How does it work, are you asking? Let me show you the details:
Yesterday, the Orioles trailed 5-1 before storming back for a 9-to-6 victory at Yankee Stadium. Since Baltimore is indeed facing New York again, and their moneyline is much higher than -175, then by virtue of this system we should be backing the Orioles as small underdogs today. That represents today’s second system pick in Major League Baseball.
That being said, I’m not sure I like this play that much.
Yes, Kyle Gibson has performed better than Clarke Schmidt. But the latter starter has been improving lately, and that would make me uncomfortable if fading him. In fact, Schmidt has surrendered 2 runs or less in 3 of his past 4 outings. His lone bad game during this stretch was against Tampa Bay, a team that has scored the second-highest number of runs this season in the Big Leagues.
Moreover, Gibson has struggled a lot against the Yankees in his career, as evidenced by his 1-6 record coupled with an ugly 6.75 ERA. I am hesitating between grading it a lean or an avoid…
Final decision: Avoid
SYSTEM PICK #3: Seattle Mariners (@ -240 odds, vs Oakland A's)
I don’t recall observing something like this over the past several years, but for the fourth straight day we have “The Scoring Drought” betting strategy suggesting to back the Seattle Mariners at home against the Oakland A’s.
So far, it has worked well since the Mariners have won the first three games of the series. If I remember correctly, I rated all of them as leans. I liked them all, but I’m not a big fan of putting a wager on such low odds.
Today, DraftKings has the best odds on Seattle as of 9:30 am Eastern Time with a line of -240 in American format, or 1.42 in decimal.
Again, this is quite tempting given how bad the A’s are playing, and also due to the fact that we have Logan Gilbert starting for Seattle. In 9 starts, he has never given up more than four runs. His WHIP statistic of 1.00 is also exceptional.
The only source of concern is his counterpart: J.P. Sears. Don’t sleep on him. His 4.99 ERA is not impressive, but the league average in terms of the WHIP stat is 1.30, while Sears’ number sits at 1.15, which is very solid.
During his three outings in May, he posted a 3.57 ERA. He also has a high strikeout rate.
This could potentially be a low-scoring game, in which case taking a huge favorite becomes a risky proposition…
So, for the fourth straight day I will make it a “lean”, but if you feel like giving it a shot, I would not be against the idea. It’s up to you my friend.
Final decision: Lean
A big thank you for reading and I’ll see you again tomorrow for more MLB predictions!