Free MLB Picks Thursday June 29, 2023
Surprisingly, my 19 MLB betting systems are backing just two teams today. Still, I’ve got three official picks to share with you today!
SYSTEM PICK #1: San Diego Padres -1.5 (@ -107 odds, at Pittsburgh Pirates)
The first system pick for June 29 is supported by two betting strategies at a time. I’m taking the San Diego Padres on the road in Pittsburgh. They are backed both by “The Blowout #1” and “The Pummeled Pitchers” systems.
Joe Musgrove is set to start for San Diego. He is a former Pirate, so that equates to added motivation for him. He got off to a rocky start to the season by posting an abysmal 6.75 ERA over his first five outings. However, he is back to his old form with a tiny 1.98 ERA during his last six starts! That’s the guy we know!
Luis Ortiz takes the mound for the Pirates. He owns a decent 3.74 ERA, but his 1.62 WHIP stat is a source of concern. Granted, he is coming off two solid games in a row in which he allowed just one run in Milwaukee and one run in Miami. Ortiz’s biggest problem has been walks. He has a disappointing 31-to-22 strikeout-to-walks ratio.
The last eight times the Padres scored two runs or less in a game, they followed up with a nice 7-1 record. Since they put just one run on the board yesterday, let’s hope their tendency to rebound nicely will continue.
Moreover, the last 22 times San Diego played on the road against a team with a losing record, they have racked up a 15-7 record.
Pittsburgh has a young roster. They have 3 new callups who began their MLB career in the last 10 days. I believe Joe Musgrove and the Padres will take advantage of their lack of experience.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Over 5.5 first 5 innings Astros-Cards (@ +105 odds)
28-year-old rookie J.P. France has done better than expected with an average 1.26 WHIP statistic. However, he has allowed a homerun in 7 of his 9 starts.
I have rarely seen a guy post such horrible numbers through 9 starts as Adam Wainwright as done this year. A 6.56 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP stat are something to be ashamed of. Maybe he should have retired before the season began instead of playing one more year…
SYSTEM PICK #3: Chicago White Sox +0.5 first 5 innings (@ -120 odds, at Los Angels Angels)
Here is a third MLB value wager: I am banking on the White Sox +0.5 run for the first five innings at the Angels. I placed this bet at -120 odds this morning, and according to my statistical model this is a solid bet at odds up to -135 (or 1.74 in decimal odds).
Don’t be misled by Lance Lynn’s ERA, which is much higher than Sandoval’s. Both starters have almost identical WHIP stats (1.49 vs 1.47), which is a better predictor of future success.
Lynn may be turning the corner after racking up 23 punchouts in his last two starts, wow!
Meanwhile, Sandoval has given up 10, 4, 10, 8 and 8 hits in his past five appearances.
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