Free MLB Picks Thursday June 22, 2023
Boy, that was close! Our run of 20 consecutive winning bets from using “The Scoring Drought” betting system almost came to an end yesterday, as the Guardians barely picked up the W by a 7-6 score over Oakland. That extended this amazing winning streak to 21. Unfortunately, no team qualifies under this betting angle today, but I still have 3 MLB system picks to present to you today, Thursday June 22nd.
SYSTEM PICK #1: Minnesota Twins (@ -161 odds, vs Boston Red Sox)
The first baseball system pick for today is backed by “The Snapped Winning Streak” betting strategy, whose rules are as follows: if the road team lost its previous game after winning at least five in a row, bet the home team. As simple as that!
By following those rules over a seven-year span, you would have earned a 7.9% ROI over close to 300 wagers.
Now, can you guess which team fits under this system? If you take a look at Boston’s recent schedule, you will realize that they won six straight games before seeing this nice run came to a halt yesterday.
Since they are indeed on the road, then by virtue of “The Snapped Winning Streak” strategy we are invited to back the home squad. For this reason, today’s system pick number one goes to the Minnesota Twins.
Joe Ryan is one of the top pitchers in the game. The 27-year-old hurler posted solid numbers in his first full season in the Big Leagues last year, and he is now following up with an even better performance in 2023. His 0.97 WHIP statistic is simply spectacular. He ranks second in MLB in that category behind Tyler Wells.
Granted, Ryan has shown some signs of weaknesses lately. In his past four outings, he has squandered 16 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.
However, the good news is he is facing some suspect pitchers. Justin Garza will serve as the opener for one or two innings before giving way to Brandon Walter, who will be making his MLB debut. Did you take a look at his minor league stats? They are ugly. In 13 appearances, his ERA stands at 6.28. You heard it right: he owns a 6.28 ERA this year in Triple-A.
So, based on my analysis, I’m going to grade this play as an official pick. I’m banking on the fact that yesterday’s dramatic win by the Twins will take some pressure off of their shoulders, and that they will play with more confidence starting today.
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Cleveland Guardians (@ -172 odds, vs Oakland A's)
The second system pick goes to the Cleveland Guardians at home against Oakland. Do I view it as an official pick, a lean or a play to avoid? Let’s find out.
The Guardians are supported by “The Comeback” betting angle that I presented in yesterday’s live stream. After trailing 4-0 early in the game, Cleveland came back to get the victory 7-6.
I’ve got to warn you that the Guardians fit this system just barely. If you watched yesterday’s live stream, I taught you that one of the criterion for betting was that the team in question must have a moneyline that is better than -175. This morning I am seeing some bookies with a line between -172 and -175, but others have odds between -180 and -190. In other words, this is borderline acceptable.
I have praised JP Sears on several occasions this year, and he is set to start for Oakland. He allowed four runs in his last outing, but he had surrendered two runs or less in six consecutive starts prior to that.
To me, Sears is a notch better than Logan Allen, Cleveland’s starting pitcher today. The latter owns a very disappointing 1.46 WHIP stat compared to a stellar 1.06 for Sears. Allen got his career off to a nice start, but he’s been struggling of late.
So, in the end, I highly recommend NOT betting Cleveland in this game; I am avoiding this play. In fact, given how tight all 5 matchups between these two clubs have been this season, if forced to bet I would go with the A’s in this meeting.
Final decision: Avoid
SYSTEM PICK #3: San Diego Padres (@ -125 odds, at San Francisco Giants)
The third MLB system pick for today goes to the San Diego Padres. This time, we are making use of “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup” betting strategy.
In short, it suggests betting the road team if they have lost at least one game in a row when facing a home team that has won at least four games in a row. In the current case, San Diego is undergoing a three-game losing skid, while the Giants are flying high after picking up 10 wins in a row.
However, I’m afraid San Francisco’s fairy tale will come to an end this afternoon. It’s quite hard to sweep a four-game series over a divisional opponent, and I truly believe the Padres will come out firing on all cylinders in this matchup.
Blake Snell has been a star over his past five starts. Indeed, he has allowed just two runs in 30 innings, while also racking up 45 punchouts in the process. And that nice stretch included a game against a tough Rays lineup, and also a game played at Coors Field.
The Giants will counter with Alex Wood, who hasn’t had a great start to his 2023 campaign. He has a 6-4 career record against San Diego, along with a 3.14 ERA.
Still, I have decided to place a bet on the Padres this morning, so this turns out to be an official pick for me
Final decision: Official pick
Have a nice day, my sports betting friend!