Free MLB Picks Thursday July 6, 2023

Can the Oakland A’s sweep their three-game series in Detroit? Can the Cardinals halt their three-game losing skid? Will there be many runs scored in the first half of the Cubs versus Brewers meeting?

I’m going to answer all of those questions in today’s sports betting article. I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher and a bookie crusher since 1999!

We lost both of yesterday’s official picks, as the Guardians did not even come close from pulling the big upset against the Braves, while the Yankees blew a 2-0 lead before losing 6-3 against the Orioles. Let’s bounce back today!


SYSTEM PICK #1: Oakland A's (@ +154 odds, at Detroit Tigers)

I’m going to take a shot at another big underdog today, as my first MLB system pick for Thursday July 6th goes to the Oakland A’s in Detroit.

This betting play is supported by “The Blowout #1” betting system that recommends betting a team that won its previous game by a margin of at least eight runs if they are facing the same opponent today.

Since the A’s dismantled the Tigers 12-to-3 yesterday, then by virtue of “The Blowout #1” betting angle we’ve got to put our money on Oakland.

Here is a jaw-dropping trend: the A’s have presented a mind-boggling 23-4 record during their past 27 visits in Detroit. That’s incredible! I also like the fact that the Tigers have been struggling against lefties this year, as shown by their 2-10 record the last 12 times they face southpaws.

Hogan Harris will start for the A’s. After a rough opening start to the season, he followed up with five straight solid outings in which he owned a 2.57 ERA. He struggled more in his past two starts, but he faced tough opposition: the Yankees and the Blue Jays. And please note that in his prior two outings, he had pitched against the Phillies and the Rays. In other words, he’s had to face some very potent offenses lately.

Meanwhile, in six June starts, Michael Lorenzen has posted an ugly 5.30 ERA. I strongly believe Oakland has a shot to take this game.

Final decision: Official pick


SYSTEM PICK #2: St. Louis Cardinals (@ +110 odds, at Miami Marlins)

Up next, the second system pick is St. Louis in Miami. Do I view this pick as a an official betting play, just a lean, or a bet to avoid? Let’s find out.

We have two betting systems pointing in the direction of the Cardinals. One of them is called “The Pummeled Pitchers”. In short, it suggests betting road teams that have allowed many runs lately.

There are actually three different criteria for betting, one of them being that the visiting team in question must have lost its past two games by surrendering at least nine runs in each of those defeats. That is the case of the Cards who allowed 10 and 15 runs in their past two matches.

However, I find it hard to get excited over this bet. Jack Flaherty did a great job by shutting out the Yankees’ bats in his last start, but he had allowed six runs in each of his two prior starts against the Nationals and the Giants. His numbers this year have been mediocre so it’s hard to trust him.

Flaherty will be squaring off with the rookie sensation Eury Perez. Sure, he got roughed up in Atlanta, but that was against one of the top offenses in the Big Leagues. Over his prior six starts, he had allowed just one run in 33 innings, which is phenomenal! Nah, I’m going to pass on this potential bet.

Final decision: Avoid


SYSTEM PICK #3: Under 4.5 first 5 innings Cubs-Brewers (@ -119 odds)

I do have another official baseball betting tip for you for July 6th: I am taking under 4.5 runs to be scored during the first five innings of the Cubs versus Brewers game.

I have decided to take this bet on the first half of the game to take full advantage of the starting pitchers, but did you know that the full game total has gone under in 10 of the past 12 Cubs games on the road against right-handed pitchers?

Moreover, if you focus on Milwaukee’s past 31 home contests against teams with a losing record, the under has presented a 22-7-2 record.

I really like both starters to hold their ground this afternoon. If you have been following me this year, you know that I have a lot of faith in Marcus Stroman. His 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP stat are spectacular. He was also great in 2022 and 2021, so there is nothing not to like about this guy.

I have to admit, though, that his past two outings were not so good, but I’m confident he can rebound nicely against this divisional rival. Since joining the Cubs, Stroman started four games against the Brewers, which led to an exceptional 1.05 ERA.

Freddy Peralta was extremely good both in 2021 and 2022. His numbers this season have not been ugly, but they are WAY below expectations. He continues to allow many runs, but advanced metrics suggest he is likely to go on a good run.

In six June starts, he posted an 0-3 record, but his 1.11 WHIP stat was great! I’m sure good things are coming up for him.

In three career starts against Chicago, he has a solid 1.50 ERA. Give me the under for the first half of this NL Central showdown!

Final decision: Official pick


Come back tomorrow in order to get more betting picks from the holder of a PhD in statistics!!!