Free MLB Picks Thursday August 17, 2023

There are just 6 MLB games on the menu today, but I’ve found two good value wagers thus far. Let me present one of them in this post (the other is available at

Yesterday, we had another winning day via a 2-1 record following my live stream. Thanks to all of you who either showed up live, or watched the replay. I appreciate you spending some time with me!


SYSTEM PICK #1: New York Mets (@ -119 odds, at St. Louis Cardinals)

This pick is backed by one of the most lucrative baseball systems that I have developed. It is called “The Big Upset #2”, and it goes like this:

Bet AGAINST any team who satisfy the following three conditions: 1) they were the victim of a big upset in their last game; 2) they are now facing a different opponent; 3) they are underdogs today.

Let’s verify that the Cardinals check all boxes. First of all, they were indeed the victim of a “big upset” last night. In case you are wondering, the definition of a “big upset” means the underdog won the game despite odds that were at least +150 in American format, or 2.50 in decimal odds.

Secondly, the Cards are in fact squaring off against another opponent since they lost to the A’s yesterday, and they are playing the Mets today.

Finally, St. Louis must be established as the underdog, which is also the case.

So, by following the rules of “The Big Upset #2” betting strategy, we’ve got to FADE the Cards, which explains the Mets pick.

Let me present the performance of this moneymaking system recently. So far this year it has recommended to bet 11 teams and we have racked up an 8-3 record. Based on the odds we got, the corresponding ROI is +35%.

Last season, we obtained a 15-7 record, along with a +19% ROI. What about the year before, 2021? An 11-9 record with a +7% ROI. Those numbers are pretty convincing to me!

I also LOVE the pitching matchup here.

I’ve been saying it several times this year, but Adam Wainwright is done. He’s had a great career, but this is painful to watch. He owns an 8.78 ERA, along with an eye-popping 2.09 WHIP stat. Remember that if you have a WHIP stat above 1.50, that is considered as being bad. Wainwright’s figure is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than this. It could not be any worse than this. He has allowed at least four runs in 6 of his past 7 outings.

The Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, whom I like quite a bit. He owns an 0-4 record, but he’s had no run support. His 3.03 ERA is stellar! He has squandered a maximum of three runs in all of his five starts this season. He was also great last year with an ERA below 3, so how could you not trust him?

I feel like the Mets could be turning the corner. After an ugly stretch where they picked up just 2 wins in 12 games, they have now won 3 of their last 4, including a nice win over the Braves.

If I had to grade this pick out of five starts, I would probably make it a four. I like this play very much.


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