Free MLB Picks Monday September 4, 2023

We are the bookie crushers! Today I want to share with you my very best bet in Major League Baseball for Monday September 4. But first, let me review with you how much we have been dismantling the sportsbooks recently.

If you merge the past four weeks together, we have racked up 69 wins, 43 losses and 1 push, which translates into a 61.5% winning percentage. We're talking about the free+premium picks provided at mjpicks.com (why haven't you joined yet? Become a bookie crusher too!)

How much money did MJ members earn during this time period? Suppose you would have risked just one unit per wager. Based on the odds from each recommended bet, you would have pocketed a 17.84-unit gain. So, if your typical bet is $100, you would have made $100 times 17.84 = $1,784 of net profit.

One of my members sent me a very simple email this morning:

Boy, have we crushed the bookies in that league or what? Over the past 33 WNBA wagers, we have generated a 27-6 record, an 81.8% success rate.

That included two more wins yesterday as we took the Minnesota Lynx -5 against the Phoenix Mercury, as well as the L.A. Sparks as four-point underdogs against the Washington Mystics. Both covered the spread pretty easily.

 

SYSTEM PICK #1: Under 4.5 first 5 innings Rockies-Diamondbacks (@ -102 odds)

My statistical model really likes a specific baseball betting pick today: under 4.5 runs in the first five innings of the Rockies versus Diamondbacks meeting.

Peter Lambert is set to start for the Rockies. This guy has been quietly posting a nice season for himself. Indeed, having a 4.95 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP statistic when you are pitching half of your games at the hitters-friendly Coors Field is not bad at all. In fact, if you focus only on his ROAD games, he owns a 1.18 WHIP stat, which is better than the league average of 1.30.

Moreover, he has done a fantastic job lately. During his past four outings, he has not allowed more than three runs. But the most impressive aspect comes from the opponents he faced: the Braves, the Rays, the White Sox and the Dodgers. He basically faced the #1, #2 and #4 offenses and still did a very decent job. Hats off to him!

On the other side, we’ve got Merrill Kelly, who is a pretty reliable starter. He is coming off a rough outing in which he surrendered seven runs to the Dodgers. Prior to that, he had not allowed more than three runs in 7 consecutive outings.

Kelly has fared well against Colorado in 2022 and 2023. During those years, he has allowed 7 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings. If you do the math, that turns out to be an awesome 1.82 ERA.

So, in short, I expect a tight low-scoring game, and I decided to go with the under for the first half of the game to make full use of the starting pitchers.

 

Subscribe to my YouTube channel to get more picks and tips from a 15-year university statistics teacher.

Or better yet, join our group of bookie crushers at mjpicks.com to receive all of the bets I am personally making directly in your email and via SMS. You won’t find better picks on the market, and nobody else with my experience, background and track record.

I’m Professor MJ, have a great Monday my friend!