Free MLB Picks Monday September 25, 2023
We have a very solid MLB pick for today, Monday September 25, despite the limited number of games on the menu!
My best baseball bet is supported by a betting system called “The Big Upset #2” that has generated a 10-3 record this season. The average odds of those 13 bets were -115 in American format, or 1.87 in decimal. The return on investment of those wagers has been +42.5%.
More importantly, this betting strategy has also yielded some gains in each of the previous three MLB seasons as well, so it has a winning proven track record.
Before we dive into the actual pick, let’s celebrate the winnings we have obtained together. Since September 16, I have provided 19 MLB picks, which have resulted in a solid 15-4 record.
But wait! Here are some more impressive numbers!
If you focus on the past seven weeks across all sports and leagues, we have obtained 6 weeks with a winning record versus just one that finished in the red. During this time period, we have racked up 126 wins, 91 losses and 6 ties, a 57.8% winning percentage.
The free picks only represent a small portion of all the wagers I make, so if you want to get exclusive access I invite you to join the large number of members at mjpicks.com.
SYSTEM PICK #1: Seattle Mariners (@ -122 odds, vs Houston Astros)
All right, so my favorite bet in Major League Baseball for September 25th is the Seattle Mariners at home against the Astros. I already mentioned how this pick is backed by “The Big Upset #2” betting angle, but how does it work? Let me review the rules with you.
Suppose Team X was the victim of a “big upset” in its past game, where a big upset means the underdog’s moneyline was greater than +150. If Team X is an underdog today and they are now facing a different opponent, then it is best to bet AGAINST Team X.
Let’s verify that it leads to the Seattle pick. Yesterday, the Astros were indeed the victim of a big upset after falling 6-5 at home to the Royals.
Since Houston is indeed an underdog today and they are facing another squad, then by following the rules described earlier we’ve got to FADE the Astros, which explains the Mariners pick.
Justin Verlander has more experience in critical games than Luis Castillo, but he’s also much older and he could be feeling the effects of a long season. Did you notice how he has shown some signs of weakness lately? During his past four outings, Verlander has allowed 15 earned runs in 26 innings, which amounts to a high 5.19 ERA. He has lasted at least six innings in each of those starts, so fatigue could come into play.
Meanwhile, Luis Castillo has won his past eight decisions. He presents better season-long numbers than Verlander, and he seems in better shape.
Add the fact that the Astros’ confidence might be shaken after getting swept at home in a three-game series against the second-worst MLB team, the Royals. I’m aware that Seattle is also coming off a sweep, but losing three straight in Texas is not as shameful as losing three in a row to the lowly Royals.
I’m Professor MJ, PhD in statistics and betting expert since 1999, wishing you an awesome day my friend! Sign up to the site that provides the best bang for your buck when it comes to crushing sportsbooks: mjpicks.com!