Free MLB Picks Monday June 5, 2023
Today I am going for the jugular by betting two big underdogs in Major League Baseball. Are you ready for my top betting tips for Monday June 5th?
I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher. In total, I have four system picks to discuss with you. Let’s rock and roll!
SYSTEM PICK #1: St. Louis Cardinals (@ +115 odds, at Texas Rangers)
The first MLB system pick of the day is the St. Louis Cardinals on the road against the Rangers. This pick is supported by two betting systems at a time, but after analyzing this matchup deeper is this an official pick, a lean, or a play to avoid?
To be honest with you, I hate this pick. The moneyline on the Rangers is around -135 in American format; how in the world are they not favored by more than this? I don’t get it.
Texas owns a 38-20 record, and they have the best run differential in the Big Leagues by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the Cardinals present a mediocre 25-35 record.
To top it all off, the Rangers are at home, so you would expect them to have a line of -150 or maybe even -170. Given the current line is only -135, that must mean St. Louis has a solid edge in terms of the pitching matchup, right?
Wrong. Adam Wainwright has been very bad this season. Remember that a WHIP statistic above 1.50 is considered to be quite bad, and Wainwright’s stat sits at an ugly 1.71.
On the other side, Martin Perez started the 2023 campaign on a good note; he simply kept cruising as he did in 2022. However, he has stumbled lately. During the month of May, he has posted an awful 6.91 ERA. But given he is nine years younger than his counterpart, I believe he has a better chance of rebounding.
It is interesting to note that Martin Perez has made eight starts on the road versus just three at home. If you take a closer look, Perez has been very good in front of his home crowd by allowing just four runs in 18 2/3 innings, which amounts to a 1.93 ERA.
There is no doubt that I am recommending to avoid grabbing the Cardinals in this spot. In fact, I would actually be tempted to bet the Rangers.
Final decision: Avoid
SYSTEM PICK #2: Kansas City Royals (@ +150 odds, at Miami Marlins)
Up next, we have the Kansas City Royals who are backed by “The Hot Bats #1” betting strategy. In short, it suggests betting AGAINST the home team if they have won their past two games by scoring at least six runs in each of those wins. That’s the case of the Marlins who are at home and have won their last two contests by putting up 7 and 12 runs on the scoreboard.
The line on the Royals, which is between +140 and +150 right now, seems a bit high to me. I have said a few times this season that I believe Braxton Garrett is an underrated pitcher, but I’m still going to fade him today. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts. His 1.31 WHIP statistic put him right on the league average.
The Royals will counter with Carlos Hernandez, followed by Mike Mayers. Both of them have performed very well in 2023, and they both present a WHIP stat that is better than Garrett’s. I like how Hernandez has picked up 38 strikeouts and just 8 walks during 28 innings pitched. As far as Mayers is concerned, he has surrendered just two runs in 13 innings.
These teams have scored the 26th and 27th most points in the Majors this league. That could turn out to be a tight low-scoring game, in which case there is no doubt that I want to take a shot at the team with a high positive odds. Give me the Royals as my first official pick for Monday June 5th.
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #3: Houston Astros (@ +108 odds, at Toronto Blue Jays)
I have a couple of teams fitting under “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup” betting angle. The first one, which is today’s third system pick, is the Houston Astros as slight underdogs in Toronto. After going through a bad stretch where they obtained a 3-10 record, the Jays seem to be back on track after winning 6 of their past 7 matches.
I prefer to pass on this one. Toronto is on fire, they are at home and Alek Manoah is due for a good outing, isn’t he? I am aware he’s been a huge disappointment this year, but he could potentially rebound. To me, the odds on the Astros are not big enough to warrant a bet.
Final decision: Avoid
SYSTEM PICK #4: Oakland A's (@ +167 odds, at Pittsburgh Pirates)
The other MLB team that qualifies under “The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup” today is the Oakland A’s as big underdogs in Pittsburgh. Am I viewing it as an official pick?
Before I reveal the answer, please give me 20 seconds to share with you a proud dad moment that I experienced yesterday. Both of my sons are playing in the same baseball team this season. Yesterday, a ground ball was hit to my youngest son, Jay, who caught the ball and flipped it to his brother Mavrik at second base to record an out. At this young age, there are not that many outs recorded each game, so I felt so proud of them teaming up to get that out.
All right, Oakland has won less than 20% of its games this season, which is jaw-dropping. But you know what? I’m going to take a stab on the A’s. How crazy is that?
As I have repeated on several occasions this year, I love the progression of J.P. Sears. His 4.37 ERA is blinding people by telling them he is an average pitcher, but his 1.07 WHIP statistic is spectacular! There has been not much traffic on the bases when he has been on the mound. In each of his past four starts, he has squandered either 1 or 2 runs, despite facing high-octane offenses like the Braves and the Rangers.
Over the entire season, Johan Oviedo has obtained a 1.55 WHIP statistic, which is pretty bad. I have to admit he has been better lately, but he keeps giving up several walks in each start. I truly believe it is worth taking a shot on the A’s here. If you are more conservative, you could elect to take them with the run line is lower odds, if you prefer. Personally, I am going for the fences and taking the moneyline.
Final decision: Official pick
I’m Professor MJ, it was a pleasure talking to you today my friend!