Free MLB Picks Monday June 26, 2023
Today we have a slate of just six games in Major League Baseball, but I’ve got a couple of betting picks to share with you.
Are you ready to start the week on a good note with Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher? Let’s go!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Texas Rangers (@ -183 odds, vs Detroit Tigers)
The first pick is backed by a betting system called “The Cold Teams Matchup #1” that has won 6 of its past 8 predictions.
Out of my 19 MLB betting strategies, it is one of the few that advises to bet big favorites. That’s not something I enjoy to do, but given the good historical performance, I’ve got to pay attention to what this system says.
Now, the pick in question goes to the Texas Rangers who will be hosting the Detroit Tigers. On the mound, Matthew Boyd will square off against Andrew Heaney.
Both are lefties, so let’s see how each team has done against left-handed pitchers lately. On Detroit’s side, they have lost each of their past seven games under such conditions; things couldn’t be uglier than this.
As far as Texas is concerned, they have performed admirably well against lefties, as shown by their 8-3 record the last 11 times they were placed in that situation.
It is also interesting to note that Boyd has struggled mightily against the Rangers in his career. In fact, in 10 appearances he holds an abysmal 1-7 record, along with a high 6.39 ERA.
Meanwhile, after a fairly rocky start, Heaney has done very well for Texas. Indeed, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his past eight outings.
In terms of offense, no one can argue much about the big edge going over the Rangers’ side. They have scored the highest number of runs in the Big Leagues this season, while Detroit ranks next-to-last in that category.
Based on my statistical model, the moneyline on the Rangers should be closer to -235, which explains why I placed my bet at -183 odds with BetOnline this morning. Give me Texas all day in this matchup!
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Baltimore Orioles (@ -126 odds, vs Cincinnati Reds)
Today’s second pick is not supported by any of my betting systems. I like the Baltimore Orioles as small favorites at home against Cincinnati.
The Reds won 12 consecutive games, but they have now dropped their past two. I suspect that it will break their confidence and they could go back to what they’ve been all season long: an average baseball team.
They are playing on the road against a team that has shown much more consistency: the Orioles, who present a nice 47-29 record. To me, the price on Baltimore is very reasonable, and in fact I thought the odds would be smaller than this.
Rookie Brandon Williamson is set to start for the Reds. He hasn’t been awful, but he is clearly below-average right now. He has surrendered at least three runs in each of his past six outings.
The Orioles will counter with Cole Irvin, who’s had a rough 2023 campaign so far. And that is the main reason why the line is as high as it is right now, but I’ll be glad to take it. He owns a 7.71 ERA, which can only go down. He has done better since coming back in the Big Leagues on June 10.
Final decision: Official pick
So, the official picks for today are the Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles. As always, I don’t recommend betting them into a single parlay, but rather as single bets.
I am a strong advocate of NOT doing parlays since the mathematics show they are super bad to your long-term success. In fact, the bookie’s commission is super high, and they are super happy to take your parlay bets since the majority of their profits come from such wagers.
I strongly invite you to watch the video I made called “Stop Doing Parlays” that shows all the evidence, which might save you thousands of dollars in the long run. Simply click here to view this insightful video!