Free MLB Picks Monday June 19, 2023

Today I like 2 MLB picks so much that if they both lose, I’m going to give away $100 US to one of my viewers on YouTube. How do you like the sound of that? Details later in this post.

Both baseball picks are backed by the following logic: when a team is coming off either an emotional victory, or an emotional SERIES win, they tend to fall flat in their next game.

Now, can you guess which two teams I have decided to bet AGAINST based on this rationale?


SYSTEM PICK #1: San Diego Padres (@ -1115 odds, at San Francisco Giants)

Pick #1 in Major League Baseball for Monday June 19 goes to the San Diego Padres as slight favorites in San Francisco.

The Giants are coming off their first series sweep in Los Angeles in 11 years. They outscored the Dodgers 29-to-8. Beating up on their archrivals was great, but I’m afraid their energy level will drop a little bit tonight, even though they are still facing another divisional opponent.

The Padres have been doing much better lately, as evidenced by their 7-3 record during their past 10 matches. They even found a way to beat the Rays two times in a row. I’m also impressed by the fact that San Diego has won each of their past six games at Oracle Park.

Michael Wacha is set to take the mound for the Padres. His first five starts of the season were not so great, but he has been impeccable since then. In fact, he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his past eight outings. That’s unbelievable. That included five starts in which he shutout his opponents!

Meanwhile, 27-year-old rookie Ryan Walker will serve as the opener before giving way to a bulk reliever, possibly Sean Manaea. The latter is nothing more than an average pitcher, and I’m confident that the Padres can get to him.

Oh, and by the way Michael Wacha owns a 1.42 ERA in his career in seven outings against the Giants. I’m definitely betting the Padres tonight!

Final decision: Official pick


SYSTEM PICK #2: Minnesota Twins (@ -125 odds, vs Boston Red Sox)

Still based on the logic of FADING a team coming off an emotional series, why not bet AGAINST the Boston Red Sox who just swept the Yankees? For this reason, my second official pick for today is the Minnesota Twins at home against Boston.

James Paxton will square off against Pablo Lopez. Paxton has the better ERA, but they have almost identical WHIP statistics. Both are pretty solid and will make it tough for opposing batters.

Right now 67% of moneyline bets have gone on Minnesota, but if you focus on the total amount of money wagered that proportion goes to 97% on the Twins! That means big bets placed by sharp bettors have backed the home team in this matchup.

Also, even though I don’t have actual numbers, I have seen several reliable gamblers mention the idea that fading teams off Sunday Night Baseball has been a lucrative betting strategy. In the case of Boston, things are even worse since they played TWO games yesterday.

Final decision: Official pick


If both the Padres and the Twins lose today, I’ll give one of my YouTube viewers $100 US. All you need to do is comment this video for a chance to win the prize.

If that happens, I will assign a number to each poster, and we will use the last few digits of the attendance in Philadelphia on Tuesday to determine the winner in completely random fashion.

So, comment below this video to let us know what is your top pick of the day in Major League Baseball, and you might bring home the $100 cash prize if both of my picks lose!