Free MLB Picks Monday July 31, 2023
Hello sports betting friends, today I want to present two potential MLB bets with you for Monday July 31st. I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher from Quebec City in Canada, which explains my French accent.
SYSTEM PICK #1: Griffin Canning under 5.5 strikeouts (@ -117 odds)
Let’s get started with a player proposition bet: my first official pick for today is Griffin Canning from the L.A. Angels to record under 5.5 strikeouts in Atlanta.
If you had made this bet in each of Canning’s 16 starts this season, you would have picked up a 9-7 record. Given he is facing the team that has scored the second-highest number of runs in Major League Baseball in 2023, I like our chances here.
Granted, I have to admit that we are observing a clear uptick in the number of punchouts that he has been racking up lately. Indeed, he averaged 4.3 strikeouts per outing during his first seven starts, while that average increased to 6.8 over his past nine starts.
Still, given the strong opposition he is about to face, I believe the under is a good value wager. My statistical model also agrees with this assessment. After entering the batting statistics of the Braves’ hitters and Canning’s pitching stats, I asked my model to simulate the game one million times.
What were the results? Under 5.5 strikeouts ended up being the winning bet 58.7% of the time. In terms of odds, that means the fair odds are +142 on the over and -142 on the under.
When I shared this play at 9:30 am Eastern Time, there were tons of bookies with a line varying between -117 and -135. They are all good bets based on my projections that indicate it is worth taking a shot at odds up to -142 in American format, or 1.70 in decimal format.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Under 4.5 first 5 innings Red Sox-Mariners (@ -125 odds)
Before I unveil today’s second MLB pick, let me update you on “The Scoring Drought” betting system that had produced 25 straight winning bets, the last one being the Giants last Wednesday.
We had two qualifying plays yesterday, and unfortunately the amazing streak came to an end. We did win on the Padres against the Rangers yesterday, but the Blue Jays could not beat the Angels in extra innings.
We were that close to extending this incredible winning run to 27. I will let you know the next time we have a pick that matches this moneymaking betting strategy!
All right, pick number two is under 4.5 runs to be scored in the first 5 innings of the Red Sox versus Mariners game. If you look at full games, the under has hit in each of Boston’s past six games. And if you switch your attention to Seattle’s side, the under was a winner in each of their past three matches.
Nick Pivetta is set to start against George Kirby. I like both of them to do a good job of limit the other team’s offense, which is why I preferred to go with the first half of the game only.
Since moving to the bullpen, Pivetta has posted a jaw-dropping 1.98 ERA. He has done better as a reliever than as a starter, but I believe his increased confidence level will help him get the job done tonight. Also, he has fared better on the road, as shown by his great 1.09 WHIP stat compared to 1.24 at home.
Meanwhile, the Mariners will counter with George Kirby. This guy has been very good since entering the league last year. His 1.08 WHIP stat is among the best, and it is even better at home: a mind-boggling 0.95. Obviously, my main source of concern is the fact that he has struggled in two of his past three outings, but I believe he will bounce back in front of his home crowd.
Did you know that I revealed 3 super early NFL picks for Week 1 nine days ago? This is my personal invitation for you to watch this video by clicking here!