Free MLB Picks Monday July 3, 2023

I gave you 10 free picks in Major League Baseball last week, and those plays generated a 6-4 record, including the nice upset win by the Oakland A’s against the Yankees on Tuesday.

Let’s continue our good run together, and I want to thank you for being here again, my loyal fans!

Today, Monday July 3rd, I’ve got two good value wagers for you. I’ve decided to throw you a little curveball by sharing picks that have nothing to do with my MLB betting systems. I hope you will enjoy them!


SYSTEM PICK #1: Over 4.5 first 5 innings Orioles-Yankees (@ -108 odds)

My first argument is as follows: I strongly believe the pitchers coming off either a perfect game or a no hitter tend to perform poorly in their next outing. In this case, Domingo German threw a perfect game against Oakland, but things won’t be as easy against a tough Orioles lineup.

Also, let’s not forget that prior to his perfect game, German had allowed 10 runs to the Mariners and 7 runs to the Red Sox.

Meanwhile, Tyler Wells will take the mound for Baltimore. In 12 career appearances against New York, including six starts, Wells owns an 0-4 record coupled with a bad 5.26 ERA.


SYSTEM PICK #2: Jake Irvin (WSH) under 4.5 strikeouts (@ -125 odds)

Irvin’s ERA is not necessarily horrible at 4.72, but a 1.49 WHIP statistic does not suggest an improvement is coming up shortly either.

To me, one big source of concern is the fact he has issued 25 walks in 47 innings. I’m hoping he will be removed from the game early so that he doesn’t have much of a chance to rack up 5+ punchouts.

Suppose we would have bet Irvin under 4.5 strikeouts in each of his 10 starts this season. We would have obtained a great 7-3 record. Now, Irvin is facing the Reds who have scored the 7th-most runs in the Big Leagues this season, so why would the trend change?

I simulated this game one million times by using each team’s projected lineups, along with their stats from 2021, 2022 and 2023. Based on this statistical analysis, the under holds a 59.5% probability of hitting. In terms of odds, that means the minimum acceptable odds are -147 in American odds, or 1.68 in decimal.

That being said, I shared this pick at 9:31 am Eastern Time and placed my bet at -125 odds. Many bookies had a line varying between -125 and -140, including FanDuel, BetMGM, Bet365, bwin and Betway.


I have plenty of free MLB picks  to share with you this season, so join our community of bookie crushers on YouTube by smashing the subscribe button now! We have 25,000 subscribers and I’m aiming to get to 100,000 by the end of the 2024 year. I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher, saying so long!