Free MLB Picks Friday May 26, 2023
Hello folks, Professor MJ is back with more MLB picks for you, but this time I’m going to throw you a little curveball.
Instead of sharing my betting tips that are backed by my 19 baseball betting systems here, while giving away the plays supported by my statistical model to my paid members at mjpicks.com, I will do the opposite today.
Are you ready for this? Let’s go!
SYSTEM PICK #1: A Run to be Scored 1st Inning Padres-Yankees (@ -110 odds)
My first official betting pick in Major League Baseball for Friday May 26th is a run to be scored in the first inning of the Padres versus Yankees game.
I shared this play at 8:45 am Eastern Time, and at that moment the best available odds were -110 in American format, or 1.91 in decimal, with tons of well-known bookies like Caesars, BetMGM, Party Poker, BetRivers and Sugar House.
If you take a look at San Diego’s past 23 games, betting a run to be scored in the opening frame has generated a 12-11 record. Now, if you switch your attention to the Yankees, that bet produced a 9-6 record lately.
Of course, the success of that wager type depends a lot on the quality of the starting pitchers.
What the heck is happening to Joe Musgrove this season? After being a very dominant pitcher in 2021 and 2022, he has looked lost thus far this season. His 6.75 ERA is ugly, while his 1.58 WHIP stat is no better. He has had just one good outing during his five starts, and facing a tough Yankees lineup on the road won’t help.
Meanwhile, New York will counter with rookie Randy Vasquez, who will be making his MLB debut. In Triple-A this season has has posted an ERA close to 5, so it does not bode well for him tonight especially given the Padres offense seems to be waking up. Indeed, they have scored an average of 6.3 runs in their past four contests.
So, in summary, I really like either the Padres or the Yankees to put at least a run on the board in the first inning tonight at Yankee Stadium.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Over 8.5 Red Sox - Diamondbacks (@ +100 odds)
The second official MLB pick I’ve got today, which is based on the statistical model I have refined over the past 20 years, is over 8.5 runs in the Red Sox versus Diamondbacks meeting.
Earlier today, I obtained +100 odds with the Bet99 sportsbook, while my model says the fair line is -123 in American format, or 1.81 in decimal.
So, in case your bookie has a different line, those are the minimum acceptable odds. For example, betting at -110, or -115 or -120 odds is fine, but -125 or -130 would not be advisable.
My main source of concern regarding this wager is Chris Sale. His 5.01 ERA may not impress you, but he still owns a much better than average 1.17 WHIP statistic. He just hasn’t been lucky so far because there hasn’t been much traffic on the bases when he’s been pitching. Also, he has shown big improvements in his past four outings, as shown by his 2.30 ERA during this stretch.
Other than that, taking the over seems like a solid bet. Chris Sale will be facing a rookie that has allowed 7, 6, 1 and 3 runs in his four appearances this season. He also has 14 strikeouts versus 8 walks, a pretty bad ratio.
Moreover, both offenses have been quite dangerous in the 2023 campaign. In fact, Boston has scored the 5th highest number of runs this year, while Arizona ranks 8th in that same category.
It is also interesting to note the impact of having an off day for both teams. After a day off, the over has gone 5-2 for Boston, versus 13-5 for Arizona. In other words, both teams have had a tendency to score and allow lots of runs following a one-day break.
I appreciate all of you, thanks for reading and I’ll talk to you again on Monday!