Free MLB Picks Friday June 2, 2023
In this article, I will discuss 3 MLB system picks for today, Friday June 2nd. The first two potential betting plays are backed by a betting strategy called “The Cold Teams Matchup #1”.
To be honest with you, this may be the one I like the least among all 19 baseball systems I have developed. Why? The main reason is that I don’t find it particularly logical; it doesn’t fit with my personal intuition.
Let me explain how it works. Suppose the road team has lost its past 1, 2 or 3 games. Meanwhile, the home team has lost at least one game in a row, and their moneyline is weaker than -150. What I mean here is that the line has to be -151, or -152, or -153, etc. Under such conditions, based on data from 7 past seasons, we should be backing the home squad to win today.
So, basically, we are talking about 2 teams undergoing a losing skid with the home team being established as a moderate or big favorite. If you asked me, if two struggling teams are battling each other, I would tend to go with the road team because they have less pressure, as opposed to the home team who could quickly get booed. However, that is not what the numbers are telling us. Still, I always prefer to use systems that go in accordance with my intuition, which is the case of almost all other 18 MLB strategies I came up with.
SYSTEM PICK #1: San Francisco Giants (@ -150 odds, vs Baltimore Orioles)
All right, now which two teams qualify under this system? Baltimore is the visiting team and they have lost one game in a row. They will be traveling to San Francisco, a team that has lost a couple of consecutive matches. Since the Giants’ moneyline is a bit weaker than -150, then system pick #1 for today goes to San Francisco.
That being said, is this an official pick, a lean or a play to avoid, after analyzing this matchup further? In the end, I have decided to grade it as an official pick.
Dean Kremer is set to start for Baltimore. He has enjoyed a great month of May via a 2.45 ERA, despite facing the Blue Jays, the Rays and the Braves, three fierce opponents. Still, he owns a pretty bad 1.44 WHIP statistic this season, and I believe he is due for a poor outing, especially on the road.
There is not much debate that Logan Webb is a notch better than Kremer. Webb performed at a very high level in 2021, 2022 and now this year. Did you know that he currently has a streak of seven straight quality starts? Moreover, he has surrendered either 0 or 1 run in each of his past four outings. Talk about being dominant!
Baltimore has not fared very well when facing a strong pitcher. In fact, the last six times they faced a hurler with a WHIP stat below 1.15, they have presented a 1-5 record. Give me the Giants to pick up the W against the Orioles.
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Miami Marlins (@ -200 odds, vs Oakland A's)
The other team that fits under “The Cold Teams Matchup #1” strategy is Miami. Their moneyline sits around -200 against Oakland. I was fairly quick to discard it and view it as a play to avoid.
The A’s will hand the ball to Hogan Harris, who has less than six innings pitched in the Big Leagues. Remember something I have repeated on a few occasions this year: when a team starts a pitcher that has very little experience, that brings more uncertainty into the game, and in that case I believe it is best to go with the underdog. Of course, that pitcher might fall flat, but you never know if he could surprise everyone with a nice performance. In fact, Hogan Harris limited a tough Astros lineup to just one hit in five innings in his prior appearance, so who knows how he will do on Friday?
And it’s not like we had a very reliable pitcher on our side if we place a bet on the Marlins. Indeed, Edward Cabrera has not inspired me much confidence so far. His main problem has been walks. How can you give up 35 walks in 52 innings in Major League Baseball? That’s unacceptable. In 11 starts, he hasn’t been able to allow less than two runs in any of them.
I’m sorry, but there is no way I want to bet a .500 team with a suspect pitcher on the mound at -200 odds. I’m going to pass.
Final decision: Avoid
SYSTEM PICK #3: Atlanta Braves (@ -119 odds, at Arizona Diamondbacks)
Today’s third system pick is supported by two betting strategies at a time, which reinforces my confidence in this play. To top it all off, one of those systems is “The Hot Teams Matchup #1”, which is among my favorites. In short, it suggests backing the road team if they have won at least one game in a row when facing a home club that has won a minimum of four consecutive contests.
In the current case, the visiting Braves are riding a short one-game winning streak, while the home Diamondbacks have picked up five victories in a row. According to “The Hot Teams Matchup #1” betting angle, we’ve got to go with the Atlanta Braves. That represents my second official pick for Friday June 2nd.
I have to admit I’m not thrilled about the pitching matchup, though. Charlie Morton is beginning to show his age. He currently has a WHIP stat of 1.47, which is the highest value he’s had since 2011. He is still doing a decent job on the mound, though.
Merrill Kelly will start for the D-Backs. He has been great all season long, except a couple of outings. It won’t be easy, but I’m still going to bank on the superior team, the Braves, to find a way to beat a good starter. I can’t say that I love the play, but I said I would start trusting my betting systems more, so that’s what I’m going to do.
Final decision: Official pick
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