Free MLB Picks Friday July 7, 2023
Both free MLB picks from yesterday lost, so I fully deserved to wear a paper bag for the first part of today's YouTube video!
That being said, I’ve got great news for you! It had been 16 days since we last had a pick supported by the famous “Scoring Drought” betting system that has generated 21 straight wins. You can see below what those wagers were. Well, guess what, we have a team qualifying under this betting strategy today!
Let me remind you its rules, and let’s see if you can guess what the resulting play is. The rules were found after analyzing data on seven full MLB seasons, and here they are:
Bet AGAINST the road team if they have lost their past two games by scoring two or fewer runs in each of those defeats. There is one more final criterion that must be met: the road team in question must have a moneyline above +150 in American format, or 2.50 in decimal odds.
In other words, we are fading a big road underdog that has struggled to put runs on the board lately. We are expecting them to continue their recent bad offensive stretch.
Can you guess which team is currently fitting those criteria?
SYSTEM PICK #1: Cleveland Guardians (@ -176 odds, vs Kansas City Royals)
Let’s take a look at Kansas City’s recent schedule. As you can see below, they have lost their past two games by scoring 1 and 0 run.
Since they are indeed on the road today, while having a moneyline above +150, we’ve got to FADE them.
That is why my top MLB pick for Friday July 7 is the Cleveland Guardians at odds that vary between -175 and -190 right now.
As you saw earlier, it’s interesting to note that the last two times we bet under “The Scoring Drought” betting angle, we took Cleveland. Come on, Guardians, you gotta do this!
I also like the fact that the last 62 times the Royals played in Cleveland, they have posted an ugly 18-44 record, which corresponds to a 29% success rate. It’s also good to know that the Guardians have won 8 of their past 10 home games against left-handed pitchers, which is the case of today’s starter for the Royals, Daniel Lynch.
Speaking of Lynch, his first four outings weren’t very good. His next three have been pretty solid, but the fact that he registered 8 strikeouts versus 6 walks does not bode well. In five career starts against the Guardians, he holds an 0-3 record, along with an abysmal 8.87 ERA.
I trust Cleveland’s starter a lot more. Aaron Civale is enjoying a nice 2023 season so far, as evidenced by his stellar 2.96 ERA. He has allowed two runs or less in 6 of his 8 starts. Now facing a pretty weak Royals lineup, I am hoping he can shut them down.
The Guardians have added motivation for today: with a win, they would finally get back to a .500 record. Give me the Guardians to extend “The Scoring Drought” system’s winning stretch to 22!
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Milwaukee Brewers (@ -116 odds, vs Cincinnati Reds)
The Reds and the Brewers will battle for the top spot in the National League Central division in a three-game series that will take place at American Family Field. Right now, Cincinnati holds a 2-game lead over Milwaukee. According to “The Hot Teams Matchup #2” betting system, this lead will shrink to just one game after today’s meeting.
This betting system goes like this: Bet the home team if they have won either one or two games in a row, when facing a road team coming off at least four consecutive victories.
In the current case, the Brewers have won one game in a row, while the Reds are riding a five-game winning streak.
The Brew Crew have owned the Reds lately. In fact, they have won 21 of the past 29 past meetings between these two clubs.
Andrew Abbott started his MLB career against Milwaukee on June 5. In six innings, he did not allow a single run, while giving up just one hit! He has stayed very hot since then, except maybe one start against the Rockies, but I believe this is the time where he goes back to Earth. The Brewers have had time to study him and I’m sure they’ll have some solutions to figure him out.
Milwaukee will counter with a solid pitcher as well: Corbin Burnes. He’s been rock solid in each of the past four seasons, so I trust him more than a rookie that has made just six starts. This is a critical game for both teams, and Abbott does not have as much experience as Burnes to deal with the added pressure. Give me the Brewers here.
Final decision: Official pick
If you want more details about the moneymaking “Scoring Drought” MLB betting system, I invite you to watch the video I made around this topic by clicking here!