Clutch teams
CRAZY NBA FACTS FROM THE LAST 14 SEASONS!!!
This 6-article series presents some crazy and interesting findings from all NBA games over the last 14 seasons (from 2002/2003 to 2015/2016).
Today we answer question #4:
Over the past 14 NBA seasons, who were the most/least "clutch" teams?
We measure how clutch a team was by looking at their record in “tight” games. In our study, a game was declared as “tight” whenever the margin of victory ended up being 3 points or less, or if the game went into overtime. Let’s see how each team did, from best to worst:
|
Rank |
|
|
Wins |
Losses |
Win % |
|
1 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
127 |
78 |
62,0% |
|
2 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
136 |
100 |
57,6% |
|
3 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
123 |
96 |
56,2% |
|
4 |
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
125 |
99 |
55,8% |
|
5 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
111 |
92 |
54,7% |
|
6 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
124 |
104 |
54,4% |
|
7 |
Denver |
Nuggets |
114 |
98 |
53,8% |
|
8 |
Houston |
Rockets |
124 |
109 |
53,2% |
|
9 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
110 |
100 |
52,4% |
|
10 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
114 |
104 |
52,3% |
|
11 |
Boston |
Celtics |
126 |
119 |
51,4% |
|
12 |
Oklahoma City/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
117 |
111 |
51,3% |
|
13 |
Miami |
Heat |
114 |
113 |
50,2% |
|
14 |
Washington |
Wizards |
122 |
121 |
50,2% |
|
15 |
Utah |
Jazz |
99 |
99 |
50,0% |
|
16 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
112 |
115 |
49,3% |
|
17 |
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
99 |
102 |
49,3% |
|
18 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
113 |
120 |
48,5% |
|
19 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
105 |
112 |
48,4% |
|
20 |
Los Angeles |
Clippers |
95 |
102 |
48,2% |
|
21 |
Indiana |
Pacers |
110 |
119 |
48,0% |
|
22 |
Milwaukee |
Bucks |
109 |
123 |
47,0% |
|
23 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
102 |
118 |
46,4% |
|
24 |
Orlando |
Magic |
100 |
117 |
46,1% |
|
25 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
94 |
114 |
45,2% |
|
26 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
84 |
102 |
45,2% |
|
27 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
92 |
114 |
44,7% |
|
28 |
New York |
Knicks |
100 |
129 |
43,7% |
|
29 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
97 |
129 |
42,9% |
|
30 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
85 |
124 |
40,7% |
The numbers above are a bit misleading because teams that did well over the last 14 seasons (i.e. teams who have won much more than 50% of their overall games) tend to also have a winning record in tight games. Our intention is to find teams that truly raised their level of play in nerve-wracking games.
In order to do so, we focus on the following measure:
Difference = Team’s win % in tight games – Team’s win % in all games
We also create 5 groups of teams according to their overall record from the past 14 seasons. Here is what we get:
|
GROUP #1: WEAKEST TEAMS (overall record 43% or less) |
||||
|
|
|
Win % tight games |
Win % all games |
Difference |
|
Charlotte |
Hornets/Bobcats |
49,3% |
38,6% |
10,6% |
|
Washington |
Wizards |
50,2% |
42,4% |
7,8% |
|
Sacramento |
Kings |
48,5% |
42,8% |
5,7% |
|
Milwaukee |
Bucks |
47,0% |
42,5% |
4,5% |
|
Philadelphia |
76ers |
44,7% |
40,8% |
3,8% |
|
New York |
Knicks |
43,7% |
41,3% |
2,4% |
|
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
40,7% |
38,7% |
2,0% |
Among the 7 worst teams from the past 14 NBA seasons, the Charlotte franchise did exceptionally well in close games, winning almost 50% of them despite a pitiful 38.6% overall record in that time span. As a comparison, a very similar overall record was obtained by the Timberwolves, but they only managed to win 40.7% of tight games.
|
GROUP #2: BELOW-AVERAGE TEAMS (overall record 44% - 49%) |
||||
|
|
|
Win % tight games |
Win % all games |
Difference |
|
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
54,7% |
44,7% |
10,0% |
|
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
55,8% |
46,7% |
9,1% |
|
Los Angeles |
Clippers |
48,2% |
48,1% |
0,1% |
|
Orlando |
Magic |
46,1% |
47,4% |
-1,4% |
|
Atlanta |
Hawks |
46,4% |
47,9% |
-1,6% |
|
Toronto |
Raptors |
42,9% |
45,1% |
-2,1% |
Two teams really stand out from this group: Brooklyn/NJ and New Orleans. Their winning percentages in close games are roughly 10% above their overall winning percentages (55% versus 45%, approximately), which is amazing!
|
GROUP #3: AVERAGE TEAMS (overall record 50% - 52.5%) |
||||
|
|
|
Win % tight games |
Win % all games |
Difference |
|
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
54,4% |
50,7% |
3,7% |
|
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
52,4% |
50,6% |
1,8% |
|
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
49,3% |
50,4% |
-1,0% |
|
Utah |
Jazz |
50,0% |
51,4% |
-1,4% |
|
Detroit |
Pistons |
48,4% |
52,1% |
-3,7% |
|
Golden State |
Warriors |
45,2% |
51,6% |
-6,4% |
You would expect teams with a 50% - 52.5% overall record to win a little over 50% of their tight games. However, the Golden State Warriors came up with a 94-114 record in tight games for just 45.2%.
|
GROUP #4: ABOVE-AVERAGE TEAMS (overall record 52.5% - 55%) |
||||
|
|
|
Win % tight games |
Win % all games |
Difference |
|
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
56,2% |
54,2% |
2,0% |
|
Denver |
Nuggets |
53,8% |
52,9% |
0,9% |
|
Chicago |
Bulls |
52,3% |
53,1% |
-0,8% |
|
Boston |
Celtics |
51,4% |
53,9% |
-2,5% |
|
Oklahoma City/Seattle |
Thunder/Sonics |
51,3% |
53,9% |
-2,6% |
|
Indiana |
Pacers |
48,0% |
53,1% |
-5,0% |
|
Phoenix |
Suns |
45,2% |
54,2% |
-9,0% |
Both the Lakers and the Suns had a 54.2% overall record over the past 14 seasons. It’s pretty unbelievable that the Lakers managed to win an even larger proportion of games when they were close: 56.2%! On the other end, Phoenix had a tendency to collapse in such games, winning only 45.2% of tight games.
|
GROUP #5 STRONGEST TEAMS (overall record 56% or more) |
||||
|
|
|
Win % tight games |
Win % all games |
Difference |
|
Houston |
Rockets |
53,2% |
57,2% |
-4,0% |
|
Miami |
Heat |
50,2% |
56,2% |
-6,0% |
|
Dallas |
Mavericks |
57,6% |
64,3% |
-6,7% |
|
San Antonio |
Spurs |
62,0% |
71,6% |
-9,7% |
When a team wins more than 56% of their games over 14 years, it’s hard to do even better in close games, as can be seen from the table above which concerns the four strongest teams from that time period.
Let’s conclude this article by showing the top 20 (and bottom 20) performances in tight games over the course of a single season. First, here is the top 20:
|
Rank |
Season |
|
|
Wins |
Losses |
Win % |
|
1 |
2013/2014 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
8 |
0 |
100,0% |
|
2 |
2005/2006 |
San Antonio |
Spurs |
13 |
2 |
86,7% |
|
3 |
2009/2010 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
6 |
1 |
85,7% |
|
4 |
2008/2009 |
Orlando |
Magic |
10 |
2 |
83,3% |
|
5 |
2007/2008 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
14 |
3 |
82,4% |
|
6 |
2014/2015 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
9 |
2 |
81,8% |
|
7 |
2012/2013 |
Miami |
Heat |
13 |
3 |
81,3% |
|
8 |
2006/2007 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
12 |
3 |
80,0% |
|
9 |
2010/2011 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
8 |
2 |
80,0% |
|
10 |
2011/2012 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
8 |
2 |
80,0% |
|
11 |
2015/2016 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
11 |
3 |
78,6% |
|
12 |
2011/2012 |
Chicago |
Bulls |
7 |
2 |
77,8% |
|
13 |
2011/2012 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
14 |
4 |
77,8% |
|
14 |
2003/2004 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
15 |
5 |
75,0% |
|
15 |
2005/2006 |
Cleveland |
Cavaliers |
12 |
4 |
75,0% |
|
16 |
2007/2008 |
Houston |
Rockets |
9 |
3 |
75,0% |
|
17 |
2008/2009 |
New Orleans |
Pelicans/Hornets |
9 |
3 |
75,0% |
|
18 |
2009/2010 |
Dallas |
Mavericks |
12 |
4 |
75,0% |
|
19 |
2014/2015 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
12 |
4 |
75,0% |
|
20 |
2004/2005 |
Washington |
Wizards |
17 |
6 |
73,9% |
Over the past 14 seasons, only one team accomplished the feat of winning ALL of its tight games: the 2013/2014 San Antonio Spurs (winning all 8). As a matter of fact, the San Antonio organization also holds the second spot (13-2 in close games in 2005/2006)! The Trail Blazers also deserve a special mention with the 5th and 6th best performances.
Two more teams appear twice in this top 20: the Dallas Mavericks occupy spots 8th and 18th, whereas the Los Angeles Lakers get ranks 13 and 14.
It’s no surprise that last year’s top performance in close games came to the Golden State Warriors. They finished with an astounding overall record of 73-9, going 11-3 in tight games (11th best from the table above).
Now, let’s move on to the worst performances in close games during a one-year span:
|
Season |
|
|
Wins |
Losses |
Win % |
|
2013/2014 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
3 |
9 |
25,0% |
|
2005/2006 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
5 |
17 |
22,7% |
|
2008/2009 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
2 |
7 |
22,2% |
|
2015/2016 |
Los Angeles |
Lakers |
2 |
7 |
22,2% |
|
2012/2013 |
Orlando |
Magic |
3 |
11 |
21,4% |
|
2002/2003 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
2 |
8 |
20,0% |
|
2007/2008 |
Memphis |
Grizzlies |
3 |
12 |
20,0% |
|
2010/2011 |
Minnesota |
Timberwolves |
3 |
12 |
20,0% |
|
2010/2011 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
2 |
8 |
20,0% |
|
2011/2012 |
Portland |
Trail Blazers |
3 |
12 |
20,0% |
|
2013/2014 |
Detroit |
Pistons |
2 |
8 |
20,0% |
|
2013/2014 |
Toronto |
Raptors |
3 |
12 |
20,0% |
|
2009/2010 |
Brooklyn/NJ |
Nets |
2 |
9 |
18,2% |
|
2007/2008 |
Miami |
Heat |
3 |
15 |
16,7% |
|
2009/2010 |
Golden State |
Warriors |
2 |
10 |
16,7% |
|
2008/2009 |
Sacramento |
Kings |
3 |
16 |
15,8% |
|
2003/2004 |
Atlanta |
Hawks |
2 |
11 |
15,4% |
|
2011/2012 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
1 |
6 |
14,3% |
|
2005/2006 |
Phoenix |
Suns |
1 |
8 |
11,1% |
|
2015/2016 |
Philadelphia |
76ers |
0 |
9 |
0,0% |
Last year’s Philadelphia 76ers team was the only one, over the past 14 seasons, not to be able to win a single close game as they went 0-9. Incidentally, the 76ers franchise holds two of the bottom three spots after going 1-6 in 2011/2012.
The Memphis Grizzlies went through a bad two-year stretch with respect to close games: they went 5-19 during the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 seasons (14th and 18th worst performances). Similarly, the Atlanta Hawks won 6 and lost 23 tight games over the 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 consecutive seasons (4th and 22nd worst performances).
The Toronto Raptors appear three times among the bottom 20. More specifically, they occupy the 9th, 12th and 19th spots (no consecutive seasons though).
========================================================
Thanks a lot for reading! Here is what’s coming up in next articles:
Over the past 14 NBA seasons,
Source: https://www.basketball-live-betting.com/